Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia

Abstract

Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins?Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia F or years, a diplomatic mystery spanning multiple countries-involving speculation about foreign adversary attacks and high-tech, undetectable weapons-vexed U.S. officials. The mystery began in late 2016, when diplomats and intelligence officers at the U.S. embassy in Cuba reported hearing strange sounds, followed by headaches, dizziness, blurred vision, and memory loss. Since then, similar incidents-which the U.S. government has termed anomalous health incidents but are colloquially known as Havana Syndrome-have been reported by U.S. government personnel in 70 different countries, including China and Russia. 1 Debate has raged within U.S. government agencies over whether such events are merely a medical anomaly or actually the product of a nation-state or nonstate actor attack on U.S. officials around the globe. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the U.S. Department of State have established numerous panels and analytical teams to investigate the cause of the incidents. No U.S. rival has taken public responsibility. The incidents sent the intelligence and diplomatic communities into a yearslong tailspin involving more questions than answers. In March 2023, the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) judged that it was unlikely or very unlikely that a foreign adversary bore responsibility for Havana