Can treasury inflation-protected securities safeguard investors from outward risk spillovers? A portfolio hedging strategy through the prism of COVID-19

Abstract

Documenting the interlinkages among assets that are widely used to hedge against inflation is crucial for investors, as the necessity to protect the investment portfolio is stronger under inflationary conditions. For this purpose, we investigate the volatility spillovers between treasury inflation-protected securities (TIPS) and a battery of other assets perceived as inflation hedges, including bonds, gold, real estate, oil and equities. The applied methodology comprehends the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) extension of the Diebold and Yilmaz (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012, 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2011.02.006) approach for the period 1/1/2010–3/31/2022. Our results indicate that the assets under consideration are moderately interconnected and subjected to several exogenous shocks, such as the US–China trade war, the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war. Furthermore, we assess the hedging effectiveness of TIPS against each asset by estimating hedge ratios and optimal portfolios weights, before and after the spread of COVID-19 pandemic, by using conditional variance estimations (DCC-GARCH). The empirical findings show that the short position in the volatility of TIPS is proved to be an excellent hedge for all the sampled assets, with the exception of short-term Treasury bonds, and their hedging ability was improved during COVID-19.