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Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. We project shifts that are directionally consistent with, yet larger than those previously estimated for most species, suggesting that accounting for large‐scale climate variability in species distribution models may substantially alter range projections.
Species distribution models (SDMs) are critical to the adaptive management of fisheries under climate change. While many approaches projecting marine species range shifts have incorporated the effects of temperature on movement, there is a need to incorporate a wider suite of ecologically relevant predictors as temperature‐based SDMs can considerably under‐ or over‐estimate the rate of species responses to climate shocks. As a subarctic ecosystem at the sea ice margin, the Eastern Bering Sea (EBS) is warming faster than much of the global ocean, resulting in the rapid redistribution of key fishery and subsistence resources. To support long‐term planning and adaptation, we combine 40 years of scientific surveys with a high‐resolution oceanographic model to examine the effects of bottom temperature, oxygen, pH and a regional climate index (the extent of the EBS ‘cold pool’) on range projections through the end of the century. We use multimodel inference to partition uncertainty among earth systems models, climate scenarios and distribution model parameterizations for several ecologically and economically important EBS groundfish and crabs. Covariate choice is the primary source of uncertainty for most species, with models that account for spatial responses to the cold pool performing better and suggesting more extensive northward movements than alternative models. Models suggest declines in the probability of occurrence at low pH and oxygen concentrations for most species. We project shifts that are directionally consistent with, yet larger than those previously estimated for most species, suggesting that accounting for large‐scale climate variability in species distribution models may substantially alter range projections.
Seasonal upwelling in tropical coastal regions can create dynamic oceanographic conditions similar to temperate systems, which are known to influence the distribution and movement of marine species. Mobile marine species may seek warmer environments (i.e. exhibit behavioral thermoregulation) in response to stronger winds during the upwelling season, which cause cold, nutrient-rich waters to rise and cool shallower environments. Pacific nurse sharks Ginglymostoma unami are present in the upwelling regions of the Eastern Tropical Pacific coastline, serving as an ideal model species to study the effects of changing water temperatures on movement behavior. In this study, we analyzed 4 yr of passive acoustic telemetry data to quantify the movement, residency, and habitat use of G. unami in Santa Elena Bay, north Pacific coast of Costa Rica, located within the Papagayo upwelling system. A total of 28 sharks (15 males and 13 females) ranging from 85 to 256 cm total length were monitored inside the bay. The mean (±SD) residency index (i.e. number of days detected relative to the number of days monitored) of individual sharks was 37 ± 28%. Generalized additive mixed models revealed seasonal and diel patterns of G. unami use of Santa Elena Bay that were associated with water temperature and wind speed changes during the upwelling season. G. unami likely uses the warmer waters of Santa Elena Bay as a thermal refuge during the upwelling season to avoid colder adjacent waters. This research will serve as a baseline to understand the movement behavior of this species as climate change alters upwelling patterns.
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