Can Voters Predict Changes in Theor Own Attitudes?

Lowenthal, Diane; Loewenstein, George

doi:10.1111/0162-895x.00226

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…People overestimate the similarity between themselves and others, and they overestimate the stability of their own opinions (Lowenthal and Loewenstein, 2001). Yet, they are probably aware of, and infl uenced by, the personal appeal and charisma (or lack of it) of party leaders.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Sjöberg

2008

Journal of Forecasting

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Four groups made forecasts of the outcome of the Swedish Parliamentary election in the fall of 2006. They consisted of members of the public, political scientists, journalists writing about domestic politics in Swedish daily newspapers, and journalists who were editing sections of readers' letters in daily newspapers. They estimated, using a 12-step category scale, which percentage of the votes that they believed seven parties would get in the election. Data were then obtained on the outcome of the election, and on the two opinions polls closest in time to it. When median forecasts were compared across groups, it was found that the group from the public was most successful in forecasting the outcome of the election. This was in spite of the fact that the median error made by individual members of that group was about 50% larger than the median error made by members of other groups. The two polls were less efficient than the group from the public and overestimated the span between the incumbent government and the opposition by a factor of 2. The members of the public and journalists showed some wishful thinking in their forecasts. There were large and consistent individual differences in forecasting ability. Men performed better than women, as did those who expressed more interest and knowledge in politics. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Sjöberg

2008

Journal of Forecasting

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“…Research on attitudes in general clearly indicates that people's positions on issues fluctuate over time (e.g., Lowenthal & Lowenstein, 2001). However, a void in the literature exists given that no one has yet compared the immediate impact of in-class debates on students' attitudes to the potential extended impact on students' attitudes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…However, a void in the literature exists given that no one has yet compared the immediate impact of in-class debates on students' attitudes to the potential extended impact on students' attitudes. Research on attitudes in general clearly indicates that people's positions on issues fluctuate over time (e.g., Lowenthal & Lowenstein, 2001). Thus, based on Budesheim and Lundquist (1999), the expectation existed that students' initial beliefs about the debate issues would influence their response to the debated material.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Faculty Forum

2003

Teaching of Psychology

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We describe the use of academic guide maps to learn psychology. Academic guide maps are the combination of derived structural schemas (recurrent knowledge structures in psychology) and node-link knowledge maps (diagrammatic presentations that illustrate the relational organization of information). We identified theories, research, procedures, techniques, classification systems, concepts, principles, processes, and systems as recurrent structures in psychology and created guide maps for each. Based on studies of derived structural schemas and node-link maps, the guide maps should help students when taking notes during lectures and studying for exams. Additionally, the guide maps may aid professors in preparing and organizing their lectures and in assessing their students' understanding of the material. 240Teaching of Psychology 1The following are the components of the six schemas: theory:

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“…When people are asked to imagine a scene from their past or their future, they are more likely to see themselves in the picture, rather than seeing the scene as though through their own eyes (Pronin and Ross, 2006). Nor are we good at predicting our future preferences and attitudes, or what our future experiences will feel like (Lowenthal & Loewenstein, G., 2001;Loewenstein, O'Donaghue, & Rabin, 2003;Van Boven, & Loewenstein, 2005). There is a gap between our knowledge of our current experience and our future.…”

Section: !mentioning

confidence: 99%

Putting Willpower into Decision Theory

Gold¹

2018

Self-Control, Decision Theory, and Rationality

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In decision-theory, problems of self-control can be modelled as problems of intrapersonal cooperation, between a series of transient agents who each make choices at particular times. Early agents in the series can try to influence the actions of later agents, but there is no rational way to exert willpower. I show how willpower can be introduced into decision theory by applying the theory of team reasoning, which was originally developed to understand cooperation between individuals in groups and allows that there can be multiple levels of agency, the individual and the team. In the case of intertemporal choice, the levels are the transient agent and the person over time. Intra-personal team reasoning, understood as a psychological process of identifying with the person over time, can generate a plausible theory of rational control if the intertemporal problem is structured as a threshold public goods game. In this framework, willpower is the ability to align one's present self with one's extended interests by identifying with the person over time. I show how intra-personal team reasoning creates a space for resolutions in decision theory and how it resolves a puzzle that exists in accounts that understand willpower as making and then not reconsidering resolutions.

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Can Voters Predict Changes in Theor Own Attitudes?

Cited by 8 publications

References 24 publications

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Are all crowds equally wise? a comparison of political election forecasts by experts and the public

Faculty Forum

Putting Willpower into Decision Theory

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