Can we detect centennial sea-level variations over the last three thousand years in Israeli archaeological records?

Abstract

Archaeological remains are valuable relative sea-level (RSL) indicators in Israel, a tectonically stable coast with minor isostatic inputs. Previous research has used archaeological indicators to argue for centennial sea-level fluctuations. Here, we place archaeological indicators in a quality-controlled dataset where all indicators have consistently calculated vertical and chronological uncertainties, and we subject the data to statistical analysis. We combine the archaeological data with bio-construction data from Dendropoma petraeum colonial vermetids. The final dataset consists of 99 relative sea-level index points and 12 limiting points from the last 4000 a. The temporal distribution of the index points is uneven; Israel has only four index points before 2000 a BP. We apply an Errors-In-Variables Integrated Gaussian Process (EIV IGP) to the index points to model the evolution of RSL. Results show RSL in Israel rose from À0.8 ± 0.5 m at~2750 a BP (Iron Age) to 0.0 ± 0.1 m by~1850 a BP (Roman period) at 0.8 mm/a, and continued rising to 0.1 ± 0.1 m until~1600 a BP (Byzantine Period). RSL then fell to À0.3 ± 0.1 m by 0.5 mm/a until~650 a BP (Late Arab period), before returning to present levels at a rate of 0.4 mm/a. The reassessed Israeli record supports centennial-scale RSL fluctuations during the last 3000 a BP, although the magnitude of the RSL fall during the last 2000 a BP is 50% less. The new Israel RSL record demonstrates correspondence with regional climate proxies. This quality-controlled Israeli RSL dataset can serve as a reference for comparisons with other sea-level records from the Eastern Mediterranean.

Common Era sea-level budgets along the U.S. Atlantic coast

“…The 2274 individual data points in the database use proxies such as foraminifera, diatoms, testate amoebae, coral microatolls, archaeological evidence, and sediment geochemistry. We have updated the database (Supplementary Data) from Kemp et al (2018) to include 390 new RSL data points from northern New Jersey, USA (this study); Croatia 56 ; French Polynesia 57 ; Israel 58 ; Quebec 59 ; Connecticut 25 ; Maine 25 ; and Nova Scotia 25 . We compared the new northern New Jersey record with other published records along the U.S. Atlantic coast from southern New Jersey (Leeds Point and Cape May Courthouse 14 ), New York City 15 , Connecticut 60 , and North Carolina 45 to examine regional variability in magnitudes and rates of past RSL change, as well as variability in regional Common Era sea-level budgets.…”

New relative sea-level (RSL) indications from the Eastern Mediterranean: Middle Bronze Age to the Roman period (~3800–1800 y BP) archaeological constructions at Dor, the Carmel coast, Israel

“… The table includes: Site name, archeological features, functional period and uncertainty, the measured elevation of the base, feature boundary elevation for calculating past sea level and total uncertainties: The total elevation uncertainties were calculated based on Dean et al [ 2 ]. For the full details presented in the table, please refer to S1 Table .…”

“…The coast of Israel in general and the Carmel coast in particular are ideal for reconstructing RSL from the Middle Bronze to the Roman period due to a number of factors: the micro-tidal nature of the Israeli coast (±0.40 m tidal range) according to Davis and Hayes [ 22 ] and the Admiralty tide tables [ 23 ]; its relative tectonic stability since MIS5e [ 2 , 24 , 25 ], with low present isostatic rates of RSL change, about 0.1 mm/year, assumed consistent for the whole Holocene [ 1 , 2 , 17 , 26 ] and the fact that the coast and parts of the submerged zone have been occupied by humans almost continuously during the Holocene [ 27 , 28 ].…”

“…In all cases, these low rates of RSL change are attributed to GIA, which varies between < 0.2 mm/y for the last 8000 years [ 1 ] and 0.15 mm/y in the last 1000 years [ 17 ], amounting to ~20 cm RSL rise in 1000 years. For the last 2000 years, the reconstructed RSL that is based on observations indicates small fluctuations above and below present mean sea level as summarized in Dean et al [ 2 ].…”

“…In Israel, the Holocene sea-level reconstructions are especially robust for the last 2000 years, as the amount of data is relatively plentiful, presented by Sivan et al [ 11 ]; Vunsh et al [ 12 ] and Dean et al [ 2 ] with one study [ 17 ] concentrating on the last millennium of RSL indicators. The study by Dean et al [ 2 ] re-assessed all previously studied data and their functional heights, dating, and associated uncertainties for the last 2000 years. This re-assessment followed a protocol developed for the International Geoscience Program (IGCP) [ 14 , 18 ] with an addition of statistical analysis using a Bayesian statistical model to produce the most up to date RSL reconstruction of Israel during the last 2000 years.…”