Can We Predict Long-Term Future Crime Rates?

Chang, Yu Sang; Choi, C. Jean

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2307350

Cited by 2 publications

(1 citation statement)

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“…The methodologies used vary among Gaussian process regression and mixed effects linear regression, and multivariate linear regression (Rajaratnam et al, 2010;Lozano et al, 2012;Schell et al, 2007;Muldoon et al, 2011;Sartorius and Sartorius, 2014). In search for a simpler projection model for long-term trends, we have used experience curve models in such areas as energy (Chang et al, 2012;Chang and Jeon, 2014), road fatality (Chang and Lee, 2013;Chang, 2014), and crime (Chang and Choi, 2016). We aim to develop and apply the experience curve model to project IMR in this paper.…”

Section: On Projecting Long-term Future Imrmentioning

confidence: 99%

When will the 2015 millennium development goal of infant mortality rate be finally realised? - Projections for 21 OECD countries through 2050

Chang¹,

Lee²,

Kwon³

2018

IJDATS

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According to the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), the number of global infant deaths for those under the age of one year was down from 8.4 million in 1990 to 5.4 million in 2010. However, the declining trend of infant mortality rate varies significantly from country to country based on the vastly different environmental elements they face. This paper attempts to predict the future infant mortality rate of 21 OECD countries through 2015 and 2050 by the use of experience curve model and compare the results to the two other well-known projections by the United Nations Population Division and the US Census Bureau in the context of the millennium development goal targets. The results from all three projections indicate that only one or two countries will meet the two-thirds reduction target of the 2015 millennium development goal. By 2050, four to 18 countries will still not be able to meet the target. Therefore, each country may need to undertake a comprehensive review of its policies and programs of infant mortality control to generate many alternative plans for major improvement.

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