Can young children be more accurate predictors of their recall performance?

Lipko-Speed, Amanda R.

doi:10.1016/j.jecp.2012.09.012

Cited by 21 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…The impact of age might be less pronounced than in previous studies using metamemory tasks 3,6,8,9 . Younger and older children did not differ in terms of their relative safe card selection, payoffs, or overconfidence levels after controlling for intervention, gender, and time fixed effects.…”

Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 60%

“…The only actively enforced inclusion criterium was age. The targeted age range is in accordance with prior research using metamemory or general metacognitive tasks 6,15,17 . Preschoolers were drawn from a population with 98.20% married or live-in partner parents, 55.36% had four people in their household and 69.65% had an annual household income of $100.000 or more (8.93% did not answer).…”

mentioning

confidence: 69%

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Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition

Piehlmaier

2020

Sci Rep

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Child development research on overconfidence suggests that the bias is present and persistent in preschoolers and kindergartners. However, little is known about what drives overconfidence among young decision-makers, how it changes over a large number of repetitions, and whether such changes differ by gender or age. The current experimental study analyzes data from 60 children, aged 4 years 0 months to 6 years 10 months, who played 60 turns of the Children's Gambling Task and provided regular estimates on their performance. A video intervention, designed to demonstrate the consequences of disadvantageous choices, was tested in a double-blind randomized controlled trial to assess its impact on overconfidence. The results show that every third participant remained overconfident even after 60 trials and constant feedback. Unlike previously reported, gender seems to be a determining factor in this process. Lastly, providing additional information through a video intervention appears to have no impact on participants' overconfidence levels. Overconfidence describes the tendency to overestimate one's skills and underestimate the impact of risk and ambiguity on a given outcome 1. The presence and influence of overconfidence on young decision-makers (4 years 0 months and older) has been consistently shown in a multitude of empirical studies over the course of several decades. The majority of these studies relied on memory tasks that compared children's predicted performance to their actual, observed outcome (e.g., performance on a picture recall task) 2-4. In all of these studies, the average participant significantly overestimated their own performance which resulted in a substantial discrepancy between prediction and actual recall. Additionally, there is evidence that overconfidence in early childhood and primary education slightly decreases with age 3,5,6. For instance, preschoolers and kindergartners seem to be more likely to overstate their recall performance compared to third-graders. A possible explanation for this finding is superior metacognitive abilities among older children who have a greater capacity to accurately recall and evaluate their past performance and assess their own predictions 7. Younger decision-makers also exhibit more persistence in excessively confident predictions, even after repeating the task, recalling their past performance before providing an estimate for the repetition, or assessing the performance of another child 8. The former aspect suggests that children do not develop underconfidence with practice (UWP) at an early age. UWP describes the propensity to initially observe excessively confident behavior which shifts to underconfidence after a sufficiently large number of repetitions. However, the approximate age range may be disputable, as Finn and Metcalfe 9 found that even fifth-graders at a mean age of 10 years 0 months showed consistent overconfidence, while Lipko and colleagues 5 concluded that third-(mean age: 8 years 11 months) but not first-graders (mean age: 6; 11) exhibited ...

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Section: Discussioncontrasting

confidence: 60%

mentioning

confidence: 69%

Overconfidence Among Young Decision-Makers: Assessing the Effectiveness of a Video Intervention and the Role of Gender, Age, Feedback, and Repetition

Piehlmaier

2020

Sci Rep

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“…Although the current study used the same experimental paradigms (study-predict-recall) used in Lipko's et al (2009) and Lipko-Speed (2013), age differences exist between the current experiment and Lipko's. In addition, in trials 2 and 3 in the current study, participants were told the number of pictures they had correctly recalled.…”

Section: Rational For the Current Studymentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The underconfidence pattern starts to arise in 9 years old children (Lipko et al, 2011). Children' prediction accuracy (PA) becomes much better when they perform tasks (3 trials) with same pictures, but overconfidence remains for new pictures (Lipko-Speed, 2013). www.ccsenet.org/ies International Education Studies Vol.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction Accuracy: The Role of Feedback in 6th Graders’ Recall Predictions

Al-Harthy

2016

IES

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The current study focused on the role of feedback on students' prediction accuracy (calibration). This phenomenon has been widely studied, but questions remain about how best to improve it. In the current investigation, fifty-seven students from sixth grade were randomly assigned to control and experimental groups. Thirty pictures were chosen from the curriculum and these were the same in the trials for both groups, 10 for each trial. The pilot study showed all pictures had the same difficulty level and that they were appropriate for 6 th graders. During three trials, students in the experimental group received feedback about their prediction and recall. The purpose of the feedback was to assist students in monitoring their learning. Results demonstrated that students in the experimental group showed improvement in predication and prediction accuracy in trials 2 and 3. Significant differences were found among groups in trials 2 and 3, but not in trial 1. Implications and future studies are recommended.

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“…Yet, it would be important to examine in greater detail whether metacognitive control is also affected from such feedback experiences. Moreover, it has been found that young children have difficulties in adjusting their metacognitive monitoring based on previous experiences (Lipko-Speed, 2013). On the other hand, Lockl and Schneider (2003) reported that even third graders showed significant improvement in adjusting their study time according to their JoL in a second study trial.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%