Cancer incidence predictions in the North of Portugal: keeping population-based cancer registration up to date

Abstract

Decision making towards cancer prevention and control requires monitoring of trends in cancer incidence and accurate estimation of its burden in different settings. We aimed to estimate the number of incident cases in northern Portugal for 2015 and 2020 (all cancers except nonmelanoma skin and for the 15 most frequent tumours). Cancer cases diagnosed in 1994-2009 were collected by the North Region Cancer Registry of Portugal (RORENO) and corresponding population figures were obtained from Statistics Portugal. JoinPoint regression was used to analyse incidence trends. Population projections until 2020 were derived by RORENO. Predictions were performed using the Poisson regression models proposed by Dyba and Hakulinen. The number of incident cases is expected to increase by 18.7% in 2015 and by 37.6% in 2020, with lower increments among men than among women. For most cancers considered, the number of cases will keep rising up to 2020, although decreasing trends of age-standardized rates are expected for some tumours. Cervix was the only cancer with a decreasing number of incident cases in the entire period. Thyroid and lung cancers were among those with the steepest increases in the number of incident cases expected for 2020, especially among women. In 2020, the top five cancers are expected to account for 82 and 62% of all cases diagnosed in men and women, respectively. This study contributes to a broader understanding of cancer burden in the north of Portugal and provides the basis for keeping population-based incidence estimates up to date.

Breast cancer in Portugal: Temporal trends and age-specific incidence by geographic regions

“…Given the expected increase in population and in life expectancy (36), the burden of the disease is also expected to increase. At least for the North, this is in accordance with a previous study (37). In fact, if the drastic trend observed in this region upholds, it will not take long before women from the North present the highest risk for being diagnosed with breast cancer.…”

Pain prevalence and treatment in patients with metastatic bone disease

“…In the present study, breast and prostate cancer were the most prevalent, and multiple myeloma the least prevalent. This is consistent with the reported prevalence of the population (57–60). Furthermore, at diagnosis, 28% patients with solid tumors present with stage IV disease.…”

The CDH1 c.1901C>T Variant: A Founder Variant in the Portuguese Population with Severe Impact in mRNA Splicing

“…After confirming that CDH1 c.1901C>T is a bona fide splice-site variant, we used ACMG/AMP guidelines for its classification (12). A PVS1_strong criterium was attributed, as RNA analysis has been previously performed in a cancer cell line (18) supporting our current data. We also considered for classification clinical information from 13 families fulfilling HDGC criteria and carrying this variant (reported to us by different labs), as well as two families fulfilling HDGC criteria and reported in the literature (14,27).…”

“…However, if this hypothesis holds true, it is important to highlight that the recent population rise could have also promoted the spread and frequency increase of a previously rare and deleterious variant [16,17]. The high incidence of GC in Northern Portugal [18,19] and the privileged industrial and economic situation of this region, which allowed inhabitants to settle and succeed, further support a possible clustering of CDH1 germline variant carriers predisposed to early-onset DGC and/or LBC in this region [14,20].…”