Cancer incidence risks above and below 1 Gy for radiation protection in space

Hafner, Luana; Walsh, Linda; Schneider, Uwe

doi:10.1016/j.lssr.2020.09.001

Cited by 9 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…The impact, of different A-bomb neutron RBEs assumed in the LSS risk models, on radiation risk models applied in space HRA has already been considered (Schneider and Walsh 2009 ). The current methodology allows a user-based choice because this previous work has been extended and an LSS neutron RBE model has been recently developed (Hafner et al 2021 ) and applied here. An LSS neutron RBE value of 80 is applied here for the purposes of illustrating this HRA methodology, since Cordova and Cullings ( 2019 ) and other comprehensive studies cited therein, found indications that the LSS neutron RBE for colon dose is 80 (95% CI 20; 190), i.e., much higher than the value of 10 usually applied in most official analyses of the LSS data.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The full methodology and equations for calculating REIC have already been given and results for all solid cancer plus leukemia have already been provided for astronaut HRA (Hafner et al 2021 ). The only differences between the calculations provided for REIC in Hafner et al ( 2021 ) and here are that in Hafner et al ( 2021 ), the German cancer incidence rates were applied instead of the CI5 XI—eight country rates used here. The other input requirements 1–8 given above, are actually the same for REIC and for RADS, but with the additional requirement for REIC of a dose-dependent survival curve that accounts for late radiation-induced non-cancer mortality, such as cardiac mortality and acute radiation-induced all-cause mortality with the model forms already given in detail by Hafner et al ( 2021 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The only differences between the calculations provided for REIC in Hafner et al ( 2021 ) and here are that in Hafner et al ( 2021 ), the German cancer incidence rates were applied instead of the CI5 XI—eight country rates used here. The other input requirements 1–8 given above, are actually the same for REIC and for RADS, but with the additional requirement for REIC of a dose-dependent survival curve that accounts for late radiation-induced non-cancer mortality, such as cardiac mortality and acute radiation-induced all-cause mortality with the model forms already given in detail by Hafner et al ( 2021 ). The large uncertainties in the survival curve coming from, among other sources, the uncertainties in the models accounting for late and acute mortality, were not accounted for here because these models are only published with parameter central estimates.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent indications (Cordova and Cullings 2019 , and earlier references cited therein) of higher LSS neutron RBEs than 10, are taken into account in the alternative approach by applying a published empirical LSS neutron RBE model (Hafner et al 2021 ). The LSS neutron RBE is not directly applicable to astronaut dosimetric monitoring data as a proxy for neutron space RBE.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A bespoke health risk assessment methodology for the radiation protection of astronauts

Walsh

Hafner

Straube

et al. 2021

Radiat Environ Biophys

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An alternative approach that is particularly suitable for the radiation health risk assessment (HRA) of astronauts is presented. The quantity, Radiation Attributed Decrease of Survival (RADS), representing the cumulative decrease in the unknown survival curve at a certain attained age, due to the radiation exposure at an earlier age, forms the basis for this alternative approach. Results are provided for all solid cancer plus leukemia incidence RADS from estimated doses from theoretical radiation exposures accumulated during long-term missions to the Moon or Mars. For example, it is shown that a 1000-day Mars exploration mission with a hypothetical mission effective dose of 1.07 Sv at typical astronaut ages around 40 years old, will result in the probability of surviving free of all types of solid cancer and leukemia until retirement age (65 years) being reduced by 4.2% (95% CI 3.2; 5.3) for males and 5.8% (95% CI 4.8; 7.0) for females. RADS dose–responses are given, for the outcomes for incidence of all solid cancer, leukemia, lung and female breast cancer. Results showing how RADS varies with age at exposure, attained age and other factors are also presented. The advantages of this alternative approach, over currently applied methodologies for the long-term radiation protection of astronauts after mission exposures, are presented with example calculations applicable to European astronaut occupational HRA. Some tentative suggestions for new types of occupational risk limits for space missions are given while acknowledging that the setting of astronaut radiation-related risk limits will ultimately be decided by the Space Agencies. Suggestions are provided for further work which builds on and extends this new HRA approach, e.g., by eventually including non-cancer effects and detailed space dosimetry.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%