Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029

Mi, Li; Wang, Shuo; Han, Xue; Liu, Wenbin; Song, Jiahui; Zhang, Hongwei; Zhao, Jia; Yang, Fan; Tan, Xiaojie; Chen, Xi; Liu, Yan; Li, Hui; Ding, Yibo; Du, Xiaoyu; Yin, Jianhua; Zhang, Rong; Cao, Guangwen

doi:10.18632/oncotarget.21419

Cited by 11 publications

(8 citation statements)

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“…The ranking remained consistent during 2004‐2018 in this study, possibly because the national mortality surveillance system is highly representative in China after several rounds of representativeness evaluation and adjustment [ 11 ]. Cancer was the second leading cause of death in the whole population and the first leading cause of death in those <65 years and was consistent with a study we previously performed in the Shanghai population only [ 17 ]. Thus, cancer has been the major cause of premature death during the past 15 years.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

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Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

Jiang

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2021

Cancer Communications

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Background: The long-term trend in cancer death in a rapidly developing country provides information for cancer prophylaxis. Here, we aimed to identify the trends in cancer mortality in China during the 2004-2018 period.Methods: Using raw data from the national mortality surveillance system of China, we assessed the mortalities of all cancer and site-specific cancers during the 2004-2018 period. The participants were divided into three age groups: ≥65 years, 40-64 years, and ≤39 years. Changing trends in cancer death by gender, residency, and tumor location were estimated using fitting joinpoint models to log-transformed crude mortality rates (CMRs) and age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs).Results: Cancer death accounted for 24% of all-cause of death in China during 2014-2018. The CMR of all cancer was 150.0 per 100,000 persons. Cancer was the leading cause of death in the population <65 years. The six major cancer types (lung/bronchus cancer, liver cancer, stomach cancer, esophagus cancer, colorectal cancer, and pancreas cancer) accounted for 75.85% of all cancer deaths. The CMR of all cancer increased while the ASMR decreased during 2014-2018 (P < 0.001). Lung/bronchus cancer and liver cancer were the leading causes of cancer death in the population <65 years, accounting for 45.31% (CMR) and 44.35% (ASMR) of all cancer death, respectively. The ASMR of liver cancer was higher in the 40-64 years population than in the ≥65 years population, in contrast to the other five major cancers. The ASMRs of liver cancer, stomach cancer, and esophagus cancer decreased although they were higher in rural residents than in urban residents; the ASMRs of lung/bronchus cancer, colorectal cancer, and

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

“…In contrast to other cancer types, liver cancer caused more death in the 40‐64 years old population than in the ≥65 years old population. Our previous study has also demonstrated that liver cancer was the leading cause of cancer death in the population <75 years [ 17 ]. This might be related to the cause of liver cancer.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

Jiang

Zhang

Liu

et al. 2021

Cancer Communications

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“…In this population-based study, there were significantly decreasing trends of CMR as well as ASMRW of liver cancer from 1973 to 2019 in males, females, and the total population. Consistent with our data, the mortality rates of liver cancer declined in China during 1990–2017 and in Yangpu district of Shanghai during 1974–2014 ( 20 , 21 ). The mortality rates of liver cancer in people aged over 40 years old continued to decrease possibly attributed to antiviral therapy for the chronic hepatitis B.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 91%

Influence of Demographic Factors on Long-Term Trends of Premature Mortality and Burden Due to Liver Cancer: Findings From a Population-Based Study in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019

Luo

Zou

Xie

et al. 2022

Front. Public Health

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ObjectiveLiver cancer is one of the most common causes of cancer-related death. Understanding how demographic factors influence mortality due to liver cancer is crucial for optimizing disease-control strategies. We aimed to characterize the long-term trends in the mortality and years of life lost (YLL) of liver cancer in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019, and quantitatively analyze the contributions of demographic and non-demographic factors on the mortality of liver cancer.MethodsUsing mortality data from the Mortality Registration System of Pudong New Area, the largest district of Shanghai with a population of permanent resident of 5.68 million, during 1973–2019, we analyzed the temporal trends for the mortality rates and YLL by Joinpoint Regression Program. The difference decomposition method was employed to estimate the increasing mortality rates related to demographic and non-demographic factors.ResultsA total of 21,530 deaths from liver cancer occurred from 1973 to 2019. The crude mortality rates (CMR) and age-standardized mortality rate by Segi's world standard population (ASMRW) of liver cancer were 26.73/105 person-years and 15.72/105 person-years, respectively. The CMR, ASMRW, and YLL rates of liver cancer showed significantly decreasing trends in males, females and the total population from 1973 to 2019, whereas the upward trends in the YLL were seen in males, females and the total population (all P < 0.05). A significant upward trend was observed in the increased CMR caused by demographic factors, but the changing rate caused by non-demographic factors decreased.ConclusionsThe CMR and ASMRW of liver cancer continually decreased although YLL increased during 1973–2019 in Pudong New Area, Shanghai. The demographic factors, especially aging, might be responsible for the increase in the mortality of liver cancer. More effective prevention strategies tailored to liver cancer are needed to further reduce its disease burden in the elderly population.

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“…Eighty-eight studies used projection methods not incorporating data on smoking,1 2 9 17–101 16 studies used a method incorporating data on smoking,3 7 33 41 42 102–112 and 6 studies used multiple methods 18 33 36 41 42 62. Overall, APC models were the most commonly used method to project lung cancer rates (44 studies used this method),2 9 17–58 and other GLMs were the next most commonly used (35 studies) 18 36 59–89 100 101. Only 12 studies used the present state method by assuming that the average cancer rates in the most recent years will remain constant into the future 1 62 90–99.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

Luo

Hughes

et al. 2019

BMJ Open

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ObjectivesTo identify and summarise all studies using statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence or mortality rates more than 5 years into the future.Study typeSystematic review.MethodsWe performed a systematic literature search in multiple electronic databases to identify studies published from 1 January 1988 to 14 August 2018, which used statistical methods to project lung cancer incidence and/or mortality rates. Reference lists of relevant articles were checked for additional potentially relevant articles. We developed an organisational framework to classify methods into groups according to the type of data and the statistical models used. Included studies were critically appraised using prespecified criteria.ResultsOne hundred and one studies met the inclusion criteria; six studies used more than one statistical method. The number of studies reporting statistical projections for lung cancer increased substantially over time. Eighty-eight studies used projection methods, which did not incorporate data on smoking in the population, and 16 studies used a method which did incorporate data on smoking. Age–period–cohort models (44 studies) were the most commonly used methods, followed by other generalised linear models (35 studies). The majority of models were developed using observed rates for more than 10 years and used data that were considered to be good quality. A quarter of studies provided comparisons of fitted and observed rates. While validation by withholding the most recent observed data from the model and then comparing the projected and observed rates for the most recent period provides important information on the model’s performance, only 12 studies reported doing this.ConclusionThis systematic review provides an up-to-date summary of the statistical methods used in published lung cancer incidence or mortality projections. The assessment of the strengths of existing methods will help researchers to better apply and develop statistical methods for projecting lung cancer rates. Some of the common methods described in this review can be applied to the projection of rates for other cancer types or other non-infectious diseases.

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Cancer mortality trends in an industrial district of Shanghai, China, from 1974 to 2014, and projections to 2029

Cited by 11 publications

References 37 publications

Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

Trends in cancer mortality in China from 2004 to 2018: A nationwide longitudinal study

Influence of Demographic Factors on Long-Term Trends of Premature Mortality and Burden Due to Liver Cancer: Findings From a Population-Based Study in Shanghai, China, 1973–2019

Statistical projection methods for lung cancer incidence and mortality: a systematic review

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