Canopy Cover Loss of Mediterranean Oak Woodlands: Long-term Effects of Management and Climate

Acácio, Vanda; Dias, Filipe S.; Catry, Filipe X.; Bugalho, Miguel N.; Moreira, Francisco

doi:10.1007/s10021-021-00617-9

Cited by 17 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 93 publications

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“…Research on cork and holm oak canopy cover loss carried out in the same region as the present study (Alentejo) found a likely decline trend for cork oak associated with the increase in the mean temperature, while the decline in holm oak would be mostly associated with increasing cattle numbers [32]. Rising temperatures in recent decades have also been related with increased crown defoliation and tree mortality in both cork and holm oak [32]. Other studies carried out in Spanish Andalusia, a region that borders Alentejo to the west, report that a significant part of the cork oak plantations made in this region in the 1990s of the last century, largely driven by CAP policies encouraging the afforestation of less productive farmland, are probably doomed to succumb due to the deterioration of weather conditions in the future [33].…”

Section: Comparing Farming System and Crop-modelling Approachessupporting

confidence: 65%

“…Despite little current knowledge about the dynamics of Mediterranean oak woodlands in response to multiple drivers [28], previous studies have reported the likelihood of a decline in Mediterranean agroforestry systems resulting from climate change. Research on cork and holm oak canopy cover loss carried out in the same region as the present study (Alentejo) found a likely decline trend for cork oak associated with the increase in the mean temperature, while the decline in holm oak would be mostly associated with increasing cattle numbers [32]. Rising temperatures in recent decades have also been related with increased crown defoliation and tree mortality in both cork and holm oak [32].…”

Section: Comparing Farming System and Crop-modelling Approachessupporting

confidence: 64%

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Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Ribeiro,

Santos

2023

Land

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Climate change is expected to affect the agricultural sector in ways that are often unclear to predict. If in the short- and medium-terms farmers may adapt to climate change by adjusting their agricultural practices, in the long-term, these adjustments may become insufficient, forcing farmers to change their farming systems. The extent and direction in which these farming system transitions will occur is still a subject that is underexplored in the literature. We propose a new framework to explore the effect of climate change on the choice of farming system while controlling the effect of other drivers that are also known to influence the farming system choice. Using a spatially explicit farming system choice model developed by a previous study in an extensive agricultural region of southern Portugal, we applied a space-for-time approach to simulate the effect of climate change on the future dynamics of the farming systems in the study area. The results suggest that climate change will force many farmers to change the farming system in a foreseeable future. The extent of the projected changes in farming systems is likely to trigger significant social, economic, and environmental impacts, which should require early attention from policy makers.

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Section: Comparing Farming System and Crop-modelling Approachessupporting

confidence: 65%

Section: Comparing Farming System and Crop-modelling Approachessupporting

confidence: 64%

Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Ribeiro,

Santos

2023

Land

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“…On the other hand, the species occurrence in the early 20th century is not detailed and widely referenced; thus, the comparison with the actual range is hard to assess. However, we can assume that variation in the distribution in a century is not significant for a long-life tree, such as cork oak, so the responses to climate change can be stated by recent investigations about tree dieback and changes in regeneration processes [56][57][58][59]. However, we can presently deal with advanced remote sensing techniques, which are useful to obtain punctual and refined data; by coupling that information with indexes, such as Emberger's Index, it is finally possible to monitor the responses of forest species to variations in climate, at least for the next century.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forest Conservation and Restoration Using the Emberger Index: Cork Oak as Study Case

Vessella

Schirone

2022

Forests

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The Mediterranean Basin is frequently stricken by huge disasters, and it represents an important biodiversity hotspot. Designing a synthetic approach, which is user-friendly with a low cost, that aims to summarize the main climatic factors that determine vegetation geographical ranges is a strategic solution to plan forest restoration actions and quickly act in cases of urgency. Here, we propose an updated version of the Emberger Index, applied to Quercus suber, an emblematic species of many ecosystems in the Mediterranean. Our investigation couples the latest spatially continuous climatic data, a high-resolution distribution map, and modelling techniques. The results evidence the effective benefits of the updated process, with insights into the optimal climatic requirements of a species within its real spatial domain, including projections for the next decades and the detection of putative refugia. Those outputs were not possible before because of a lack of data covering a certain area. Cork oak revealed an excellent study case, able to highlight the potentiality of Emberger’s approach, and understand the ecological amplitude and vulnerabilities of the target species. If genetic information is available, the Emberger Index can even be applied at the haplotype scale, thus benefitting the applied research. Such an index mirrors the optimal plasticity and physiologic characteristics of a species, supporting the decision makers in selecting the correct plants to use in future reforestation and restoration activities.

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“…Most Mediterranean countries have experienced a forest transition, which resulted in forest expansion. Still, in some regions, such as mainland Portugal, the effect is being reversed as severe wildfires are mostly affecting the northern regions, and desertification is growing in the southern half of the country, leading to large carbon emissions [2,[11][12][13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Estimating the Trade-Offs between Wildfires and Carbon Stocks across Landscape Types to Inform Nature-Based Solutions in Mediterranean Regions

Simões,

Ribeiro,

Santos

2023

Preprint

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Climate and land-use changes have been contributing to increase the occurrence of extreme wild-fires, shifting fire regimes and driving desertification, particularly in Mediterranean-climate regions. However, few studies have researched the effects of land-use change on fire regimes and carbon storage at the broad national scale. To address this gap, we used spatially explicit data from annual burned areas in mainland Portugal to build a typology of fire regimes based on the accumulated burned area and its temporal concentration (Gini index) between 1984 and 2019, which was combined with 2018 carbon stock data (above- and below-ground), and a landscape typology re-sulting from cluster analysis over land-use composition, diversity and configuration, to explore relationships between landscape types and the two major ecosystem services at stake: wildfire reduction and carbon stock. Cross tabulations, logistic and linear regressions were performed on these data and results revealed a strong relationship between landscapes dominated by maritime pine and eucalypt forest plantations and high-hazardous fire regime but hold the highest carbon stock. Shrubland-mixed landscapes were associated with lower carbon stocks but less hazardous fire regimes. Specialized agricultural landscapes, as well as mixed native forests and mixed agro-forestry landscapes, were the least associated with wildfires. In the case of agricultural landscapes however, this good wildfire performance is achieved at the cost of the poorest carbon stock, de-noting land degradation, whereas native forests and agroforestry landscapes strike the best trade-off between carbon stock and fire regime. Our findings support how nature-based solutions promoting wildfire mitigation and carbon stock ecosystem services may prevent and revert land degradation harming Mediterranean regions.

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Canopy Cover Loss of Mediterranean Oak Woodlands: Long-term Effects of Management and Climate

Cited by 17 publications

References 93 publications

Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Exploring the Effects of Climate Change on Farming System Choice: A Farm-Level Space-for-Time Approach

Forest Conservation and Restoration Using the Emberger Index: Cork Oak as Study Case

Estimating the Trade-Offs between Wildfires and Carbon Stocks across Landscape Types to Inform Nature-Based Solutions in Mediterranean Regions

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