Capital Flows and the Eurozone's North-South Divide

Abstract

This article offers a monetary perspective on capital flows and the Eurozone's north-south divide. It argues that finance-centric narratives in comparative political economy rightly emphasize financial instability in the periphery, but that the role of capital flows therein requires clarification. The article draws on post-Keynesian monetary theory, coherent accounting, and balance-of-payments data to make three points. First, the focus on the financial account as a driver of current accounts should be abandoned in favor of an analysis of gross capital flows. Gross flows need not stem from excess savings in core countries and can be independent from trade flows. Second, explanations of financial instability in the periphery should go beyond bank flows and consider speculative portfolio flows into bond markets and foreign direct investment into real estate. Third, rising spreads in the periphery during the Eurozone crisis and the outbreak of the pandemic were not triggered by balance-of-payments problems but by a reversal of speculative bond flows. Comparative political economy should thus dedicate more attention to institutions that render peripheral countries susceptible to speculative flows into asset markets.

Endogenous money, soft budget constraint and the banking regulation

“…An increase in bank liquidity would not make much difference as they do not need funds from abroad to do so. Kohler (2023) and Febrero et al (2019) demonstrated that the cross-border interbank flows are largely a passive outcome of refinancing decisions of banks. In general, the issue of availability of funds is a cornerstone of the neoclassical loanable funds theory.…”