Capital markets in Central and Eastern Europe: two selected cases

Nicolescu, Luminiţa; Tudorache, Florentin Gabriel

doi:10.1515/picbe-2017-0064

Cited by 5 publications

(5 citation statements)

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“…Party systems’ stability may be assessed by using aggregate volatility indicators to measure change or persistence in the political party system. Available results show that a high level of instability in the CEE new democracies is significantly higher than that in mature democracies (Krupavičius, 1999; Nicolescu & Tudorache, 2017; Sikk, 2005).…”

Section: A Review Of the Literature On The Political Longevity Of Minmentioning

confidence: 99%

Discussing the political survival of Romanian ministers since 1989—Do economic conditions matter?

Mourão

Popescu

2020

Econ of Transit and Inst Chang

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Political longevity in young democracies has attracted the attention of scholars and practitioners alike due to several particular characteristics of such democracies, such as a low level of trust, a low level of credibility, corruption, economic difficulties, a less well-established rule of law and an increased bureaucracy. In such a context, we studied the tenure duration of Romanian ministers since 1989, as well as their accumulated political longevity in ministerial offices. Using proportional hazards regression, we observed some peculiarities in the young Romanian democracy in comparison with more established regimes. We observed that left-wing majorities tend to increase the probability of seat changes and thus diminish tenure longevity. We also observed that good economic conditions may lead to the substitution of certain types of ministries, while higher inflation rates tend to shorten tenure longevity for Romanian ministers. Moreover, our estimations support the finding that Romanian ministers tend to have shorter tenures as the number of past ministerial functions increases and that the burden of simultaneously managing various ministries significantly contributes to the shorter political longevity of a given minister. Finally, recent ministers have had longer tenures than those in the first years after the fall of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989. 64 | MOURAO And POPESCU 1 | INTRODUCTION Politicians in democratic regimes do not maintain their political functions for their entire lives. Although some politicians accumulate more days in functions with intercalated tenures, their political longevity tends to be significantly shorter than that of their counterparts in autocratic regimes. Due to their essential characteristic of renewing the ruling class through elections, democracies do not grant 'eternal [political] lives' to their politicians. Some politicians in democratic regimes are especially likely to be replaced; this is the case for ministers. Ministers tend to be the visible face of large groups of officers that support the ministers' actions. Therefore, ministers tend to be held particularly responsible for the successes or failures of their cabinets. If a prime minister's image is tarnished or damaged, he or she tends to become the target of specific charges, particularly following severe crises. This paper will reflect upon the political longevity of Romanian ministers in the democratic period that began in 1989. There are several motivations for our work. First, young democracies-especially Eastern European democracies-exhibit particular features that may enrich the literature on political longevity. Given the youth of their political institutions, these democracies may give politicians certain responsibilities that are not so common in established political systems. Second, no integrated empirical attempt has been made with this number of individuals involved in work for the Romanian democracy (or even for any Eastern European democracy). Third, as already noted in the Abstract, we conclu...

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Section: A Review Of the Literature On The Political Longevity Of Minmentioning

confidence: 99%

Discussing the political survival of Romanian ministers since 1989—Do economic conditions matter?

Mourão

Popescu

2020

Econ of Transit and Inst Chang

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“…A study by Bodie (1976) established that real return on equity is negatively related to both anticipated and unanticipated inflation in the short run. According to Nicolescu (2020), high inflation negatively influences the development of the capital market because investors prefer to move away from financial assets and towards real assets such as real estate, commodities, and precious metals, as these assets tend to retain their value better during inflationary periods. This shift in investment preferences can reduce the demand for financial securities in the capital market.…”

Section: Theoretical Foundation and Hypothesis Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pension Fund Investments and Capital Market Development in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of Inflation

Dibal,

Haruna,

Onyejiaku

et al. 2023

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies

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Pension fund investment is a significant source of finance for the capital market in Nigeria. It increases the availability of funds for firms to acquire for expansion, stimulating economic growth and development. However, high inflation rates can have a negative impact on the effectiveness of pension fund investment in the capital market in Nigeria. This study investigates whether inflation enhances or reduces the effect of pension fund investment on capital market development in Nigeria. Monthly time series data from January 2013 to February 2020 were utilized using the ARDL model. The findings revealed that pension fund investments have a long- and short-run effect on capital market development in Nigeria. Our study also established that inflation reduces the negative impact of total domestic debt securities on total market capitalization both in the long- and short-run, which is the novelty of this study. The study contributes to the Modern Portfolio Theory, thereby establishing the role of inflation in determining the effect of pension fund investment on capital market development in Nigeria. JEL Classification G10, G23

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“…It was concluded that inflation and exchange rate variables affected the Sri Lankan stock market at a higher rate. Nicolescu (2020), tried to determine the macroeconomic factors affecting emerging capital markets such as Romania and Hungary. In the study using the data between 2003-2019, mutual funds and stock market indices were handled separately, and it was concluded that the macroeconomic factors affected the stock market indices more than mutual funds, and that the Romanian capital market was more affected by the macroeconomic factors than the Hungarian capital market.…”

Section: Literature Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Testing of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Capital Markets with Granger Causality Method: Turkey Practice

Kantar¹

2022

isarder

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Purpose-In this study, the relationship between the capital market (BIST 100 index) and macroeconomic variables that are thought to affect thecapital market (gold prices, oil prices, Euro-US Dollar exchange rate basket, budget balance, foreign trade balance) will be examined with the Granger causality method.Design/methodology/approach-The study covers the period of 2010-2019 on a monthly system. The data were obtained from the CBRT (EDDS) and TurkStat. Statistical package software (Stata and EViews 9) were used in the analysis of the data. BIST 100 index return is included in the model as a dependent variable and macroeconomic factors as an independent variable. The relationship between dependent and independent variables was examined with the VAR-based Granger causality method.Findings-As a result of the study, it has been understood that only the gold price among the macroeconomic factors is the Granger cause of the BIST 100 index. In other words, lagged changes in gold prices explain the variance of the BIST 100 index. When the direction of the relationship was examined, a one-way Granger causality was observed from the Ons variable to theBIST 100 variable. When the action-reaction shocks between the BIST 100 variable and the ONS variable are examined, a shock in gold prices affected the return of the BIST 100 index for about 2 months, and this effect decreased and disappeared from the 5thmonth. Again, approximately 6.82% of the variance of the BIST100 variable is explained by the Ons variable.Discussion-Developments in the capital markets are followed closely by both institutional investors and individual investors. For this reason, it is extremely important what factors affect the BIST 100 index, which is thought to represent the Turkish capital market. According to the findings of the study, changes in gold prices affect the BIST 100 index return, and the relationship between these twovariables should be closely monitored. Addressing the long-term relationship between the BIST 100 index and gold prices in future studies will make an important contribution to the literature

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Capital markets in Central and Eastern Europe: two selected cases

Abstract: Abstract. The evolution of mutual funds in terms of their inflows and outflows is seen as a good

Cited by 5 publications

References 13 publications

Discussing the political survival of Romanian ministers since 1989—Do economic conditions matter?

Discussing the political survival of Romanian ministers since 1989—Do economic conditions matter?

Pension Fund Investments and Capital Market Development in Nigeria: The Moderating Role of Inflation

Testing of Macroeconomic Factors Affecting Capital Markets with Granger Causality Method: Turkey Practice

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