Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Lin, Jintai; Du, Mingxi; Chen, Lulu; Feng, Kuishuang; Liu, Yu; Martin, Randall V.; Wang, Jingxu; Ni, Ruijing; Zhao, Yu; Kong, Hao; Weng, Hongjian; Liu, Mengyao; Donkelaar, Aaron van; Liu, Qiuyu; Hubacek, Klaus

doi:10.1038/s41467-019-12890-3

Cited by 58 publications

(48 citation statements)

References 97 publications

(138 reference statements)

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“…Even though the Sino-US trade conflict has led to a deceleration of globalization since 2018 (ref. 18 ) and COVID-19 further impacted global supply chains, the world is still connected via a highly interdependent production system. The economic impacts of COVID-19 and lockdown policies will be amplified via the ripple effects through global supply chains most likely continuing throughout the coming years.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

et al. 2020

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The global economy is facing a serious recession due to COVID-19, with implications for CO 2 emissions. Here, using a global adaptive multiregional input-output model and scenarios of lockdown and fiscal counter measures, we show that global emissions from economic sectors will decrease by 3.9 to 5.6% in 5 years (2020 to 2024) compared with a no-pandemic baseline scenario (business as usual for economic growth and carbon intensity decline). Global economic interdependency via supply chains means that blocking one country's economic activities causes the emissions of other countries to decrease even without lockdown policies. Supply-chain effects contributed 90.1% of emissions decline from power production in 2020 but only 13.6% of transport sector reductions. Simulations of follow-up fiscal stimuli in 41 major countries increase global 5-yr emissions by −6.6 to 23.2 Gt (−4.7 to 16.4%), depending on the strength and structure of incentives. Therefore, smart policy is needed to turn pandemic-related emission declines into firm climate action.

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confidence: 99%

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

et al. 2020

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“…In this context, U.S. and Chinese manufacturing accounts for a substantial portion of the global industrial output (around 45% in United Nations Statistics Division 2018 Report). China has been on a substantial growth trend in both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing activities and passed the U.S. manufacturing output after the 2010s [49].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Comparative Time-Series Investigation of China and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Global Supply-Chain-Linked Economic, Mid and End-Point Environmental Impacts

Saber¹,

Eğilmez

Gedik

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Manufacturing activities of China and the U.S. account for a substantial portion of the global manufacturing output and environmental sustainability impacts. The two countries’ economies account for one third of the global economic output. Their supply chains are critically linked with and serve most of the production and service industries across the globe. Recent global trends in manufacturing necessitate a study that comparatively analyzes the two countries’ manufacturing industries from an economic and environmental perspective. In this paper, U.S. and China manufacturing industries were investigated to analyze the economic and mid and endpoint environmental impacts over a 20-year study period. The literature is abundant with single period and single country focused works, and this study contributes to the state-of-art by extending the temporal dimension to 20 years and spatial focus to the global economy (40 countries and rest of the world). In terms of the methodology, Multi-region input-output (MRIO) models were built using the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) as the primary database, global input-output tables, environmental impact and economic output multipliers, and manufacturing industries’ final demand. Twenty MRIO models, each comprised of 40 major economies and the rest of the world (ROW), were built to cover the global trade linkages, which yielded the global supply chain linked cradle-to-gate life cycle inventory (LCI) of economic outputs and environmental impacts. The environmental LCI was extended to midpoint (Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP)) and endpoint (human health and ecosystem) impact dimensions by ReCipe framework. Lastly, the relative impact of a unit change in Leontief inverse, final demand and Green House Gas (GHG) emission multipliers on the total economic output and environmental impacts were explored with structural decomposition analysis (SDA). Results indicated that both countries’ manufacturing industries experienced positive economic output growth, in which China was more dominant in recent years. Both countries’ manufacturing industries’ midpoint and endpoint impacts were found to be steeply rising despite the negative growth observed in emissions intensities. The amount of GHG emissions and related midpoint (global warming and ozone depletion) and endpoint (damage to ecosystems and human life) impacts seemed to be quickly worsening in China compared to the USA.

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“…We separate the world into countries and aggregated regions based on economic volume and geographical location, similar to our previous study 37,38 . These regions are detailed in Supplementary Table 1.…”

Section: Region and Scenario Settingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Contrasting Suitability and Ambition in Regional Carbon Mitigation

Du¹,

Liu²,

Cui³

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Substantially enhancing carbon mitigation ambition is a crucial step towards achieving the Paris climate goal. Yet this attempt is hampered by poor knowledge on the net economic effect of mitigation for each emitter, by taking into account potential cost and benefit. Here we use a global economic model with regional and sectoral disaggregation details to assess the mitigation costs for 27 major emitting countries and regions, and further contrast the costs against the potential benefits of mitigation valued as avoided social cost of carbon. We find substantial variabilities across these emitters in both cost and benefit of mitigating each ton of carbon dioxide and, more importantly, a strong negative spatial correlation between cost and benefit. The relative suitability of carbon mitigation, defined as the ratio of normalized benefit to normalized cost, shows great spatial mismatch with the mitigation ambition of emitters indicated in their first intended nationally determined contributions. China is relatively suitable for domestic carbon mitigation and could largely enhance their mitigation ambition. The European Union, which is economically less suitable to reduce domestic emissions, could work with many developing countries which are more suitable but less capable to reduce emissions. Our work provides important information to improve concerted climate action and formulate more efficient mitigation strategy.

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Carbon and health implications of trade restrictions

Cited by 58 publications

References 97 publications

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

Impacts of COVID-19 and fiscal stimuli on global emissions and the Paris Agreement

A Comparative Time-Series Investigation of China and U.S. Manufacturing Industries’ Global Supply-Chain-Linked Economic, Mid and End-Point Environmental Impacts

Contrasting Suitability and Ambition in Regional Carbon Mitigation

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