Carbon emission reduction pathways under carbon neutrality targets in Gansu province of China

Abstract

Gansu province will fulfill the carbon reduction target under the national carbon neutrality strategy. As a developing province in China, Gansu will have to trade off carbon reduction targets and economic development. This study adopts a computable general equilibrium model to simulate the carbon reduction pathway and estimate the possible impacts on the economy, output and environment under a carbon-neutral target. Our results show carbon emission will peak around 2033 in the baseline scenario and decline slowly after the peak. While carbon emissions will peak around 2023 in the carbon neutral scenario and decline very fast from 154 million tons in 2023 to 40 million ton in 2060. The economy will continue to increase from 734 billion CNY in 2017–3375 billion CNY in 2050 under a carbon reduction target, which means the carbon neutral target will have very limited economic impacts by 2060. At the sector level, economic outputs vary among different sectors. The output will increase significantly, such as power generation 14%, water supply 8% and nonmental 4%. Some other sectors will decrease quickly, paper 15% and textile industry 7%. Carbon reduction will also contribute to air pollutants reduction, which is a benefit to air quality. Carbon neutral targets will bring more opportunities in Gansu due to green energy potential without economic burden. Proper carbon mitigation policy would avoid the adverse impact but bring more potential to the economy in Gansu.

How does urbanization affect public health? New evidence from 175 countries worldwide

“…First, rapid urbanization will lead to a series of environmental pollution problems (33), including water pollution (16), dust pollution (34), and carbon dioxide emission (35) in urban residents' daily life. Environmental pollution is widely believed to harm citizens' health (36)(37)(38)(39). Second, urbanization may lead to more chronic diseases and mental illnesses.…”

Scenario Analysis of CO2 Reduction Potentials from a Carbon Neutral Perspective

“…The data on individuals in employment (l) and gross domestic product (y) were obtained from provincial statistical yearbooks. To determine the capital stock (k), we utilized the method of perpetual inventory, which was obtained from formula (14).…”

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“…Studies show that improving energy efficiency and upgrading industrial structure, and green technology innovation [3] reduce urban carbon emission intensity [4] , reduce air pollution [5] , and low-carbon pilots can also achieve the effect of equitable carbon emission reduction [6] . By comparing carbon emissions under the general equilibrium model with the carbon neutrality target, carbon emissions under the carbon neutrality target can be reduced with limited economic impact [7] .In addition, this paper proposed carbon subsidies to offset the costs of green technology innovation [8] .…”