Carbon Purchase Agreements, Dactories, and Supply-Chain Innovation: What Will It Take to Scale-Up Modular Direct Air Capture Technology to a Gigatonne Scale

Abstract

Natural and engineered carbon dioxide removal have become regular features of climate models which limit warming to 1.5°C or even 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This gives rise to an assumption that solutions, for example direct air capture (DAC)—involving the direct removal of carbon dioxide from ambient air—can be commercialised and deployed at the necessary speed and scale to have a material impact, in the order of gigatonnes, by mid-century. Modular, solid-sorbent DAC on a gigatonne scale will require the mass mobilisation of supply chains to manufacture millions of modular DAC units−20 million of the present state of the art 50 tonne/year modules to deliver 1 gigatonne per year, as well as the large-scale production of novel chemical sorbents. To achieve a climate relevant DAC industry will demand innovative procurement models, for example carbon purchase agreements (CPAs), and dedicated DAC manufacturing facilities or dactories. In addition, insight is offered through the work of DAC start-up Carbon Infinity into the industry supply-chain position, adopting lessons from computing, and energy technologies. In particular, we look at approaches to drive demand and scale-up DAC module production, and opportunities presented in the development of an integrated DAC manufacturing industry.

Can a Symbolic Mega-Unit of Radiative Forcing (RF) Improve Understanding and Assessment of Global Warming and of Mitigation Methods Using Albedo Enhancement from Algae, Cloud, and Land (AEfACL)?

“…Direct Air Capture (DAC) mechanically and chemically extracts CO 2 and makes it available for storage [46]. Izikowitz (2021) discusses the need for "20 million of the present state of the art 50 ton/year modules to deliver 1 gigaton per year", which so far has proven to be far too expensive.…”

Assessing capacity to deploy direct air capture technology at the country level – an expert and information entropy comparative analysis

“…For example, the recent revision of the 45Q tax credit in the US Inflation Reduction Act provides additional incentives for eligible DAC projects conducting CO 2 storage or particular CO 2 utilization applications which meet specific requirements [68]. The financing environment for DAC deployment, spanning both private and public sources of capital, is nascent but rapidly emerging with regular new funding announcements contributing to broad-based attention, likely translating into capital commitments as DAC technologies achieve commercial progress and begin deployment [69].…”

The Role of Corporates in Governing Carbon Dioxide Removal: Outlining a Research Agenda

“…Platt et al ( 2018) examine firm-level decision-making by assessing revenue-generating and cost-avoiding opportunities in CDR, evaluating the extent to which these might induce corporates to engage with CDR value chains. This technoeconomic framing is echoed across the literature (Lomax et al, 2015;Nemet, 2018;Cox and Edwards, 2019;Izikowitz, 2021). Of course, in the absence of a regulatory requirement for corporate CDR, a clear business case is typically needed to stimulate engagement.…”