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BACKGROUND: Effectiveness of carotid procedures (surgery and stenting) in patients with asymptomatic carotid artery stenosis (ACAS) depends on the absolute risk reduction that patients might receive from these procedures. We aimed to quantify the risk of ipsilateral ischemic stroke and examined temporal trends and determinants of these risks in patients with ACAS treated conservatively. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review from inception to March 9, 2023, of peer-reviewed trials and cohort studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke risk in medically treated patients with ACAS of ≥50%. Risk of bias was assessed with an adapted version of the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. We calculated the annual incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke. We explored temporal trends and associations of sex and degree of stenosis with ipsilateral ischemic stroke using Poisson metaregression analysis and incidence rate ratios, respectively. RESULTS: After screening 5915 reports, 73 studies describing ipsilateral ischemic stroke rates of 28 625 patients with midyear of recruitment ranging from 1976 to 2014 were included. The incidence of ipsilateral ischemic stroke was 0.98 (95% CI, 0.93–1.04) per 100 patient-years (median duration of follow-up, 3.3 years). The incidence decreased 24% with every 5 years more recent midyear of recruitment (rate ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.73–0.78]). Incidence rates of ipsilateral ischemic stroke were lower in female patients (rate ratio, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.63–0.87]) and in patients with moderate versus severe stenosis when assessed in cohort studies, with incidence rate ratios of 0.41 ([95% CI, 0.35–0.49] cutoff, 70%) and 0.42 ([95% CI, 0.30–0.59] cutoff, 80%). CONCLUSIONS: Reported risks of ipsilateral ischemic stroke in patients with ACAS have declined 24% every 5 years from mid-1970s onward, further challenging the routine use of carotid procedures. Risks were lower in female patients and more than twice as high with severe compared with moderate ACAS. Inclusion of these findings in individualized risk assessment can help to determine the benefit of carotid procedures in selected individual patients with ACAS. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/ ; Unique identifier: CRD42021222940.
Objectives: The potential benefit of transcarotid artery revascularization (TCAR) over transfemoral carotid artery stenting (tfCAS) has been studied in the perioperative period with lower rates of stroke and death; however, data on mid-term outcomes are limited. We aimed to evaluate 3-year outcomes after TCAR and tfCAS and determine the primary predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality following TCAR. Methods: Data from the Vascular Quality Initiative for patients undergoing TCAR or tfCAS from January 2016 to December 2022 were analyzed. 1:1 propensity score matching using the nearest-neighbor method was used to adjust baseline demographics and clinical characteristics. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression were used to evaluate long-term outcomes. Iterative stepwise multiple logistic regression analysis and Cox Proportional Hazard Regression were used to identify predictors of 30-day and 1-year mortality, respectively, based upon preoperative, intraoperative, and postoperative factors. Results: A total of 70 237 patients were included in analysis (TCAR=58.7%, tfCAS=41.3%). Transcarotid artery revascularization patients were older and had higher rates of comorbid conditions and high-risk medical and anatomic features than tfCAS patients. Propensity score matching yielded 22 322 pairs with no major differences between groups except that TCAR patients were older (71.6 years vs 70.8 years). At 3 years, TCAR was associated with a 24% reduction in hazard of death compared with tfCAS (hazard ratio [HR]=0.76, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.71-0.82, p<0.001), for both symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. This survival advantage was established in the first 6 months (HR=0.59, 95% CI=0.53-0.62, p<0.001), with no difference in mortality risk from 6 months to 36 months (HR=0.95, 95% CI=0.86-1.05, p=0.31). Transcarotid artery revascularization was also associated with decreased hazard for 3-year stroke (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.66-0.99, p=0.04) and stroke or death (HR=0.81, 95% CI=0.76-0.87, p<0.001) compared with tfCAS. The top predictors for 30-day and 1-year mortality were postoperative complications. The primary independent predictor was the occurrence of postoperative stroke. Conclusions: Transcarotid artery revascularization had a sustained mid-term survival advantage associated over tfCAS, with the benefit being established primarily within the first 6 months. Notably, our findings highlight the importance of postoperative stroke as the primary independent predictor for 30-day and 1-year mortal. Clinical Impact The ongoing debate over the superiority of TCAR compared to tfCAS and CEA has been limited by a lack of comparative studies examining the impact of pre-operative symptoms on outcomes. Furthermore, data are scarce on mid-term outcomes for TCAR beyond the perioperative period. As a result, it remains uncertain whether the initial benefits of stroke and death reduction observed with TCAR over tfCAS persist beyond one year. Our study addresses these gaps in the literature, offering evidence to enable clinicians to assess the efficacy of TCAR for up to three years. Additionally, our study seeks to identify risk factors for postoperative mortality following TCAR, facilitating optimal patient stratification
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