The environmental experiences of marine invertebrate larvae can affect their later life stage performance, subsequently influencing population regulation, as posited for the crown-of-thorns sea star (CoTS; Acanthasterspp.) by the terrestrial runoff hypothesis (TRH). The TRH proposes that eutrophic river runoff plumes boost larval phytoplankton food levels, enhancing metamorphic success to the juvenile to seed outbreaks. However, runoff plumes also freshen seawater which can be deleterious to sea star larvae. For settlement-ready brachiolaria larvae of CoTS, the impact of decreased salinity (17-34 ‰) across a range of exposure durations on survival and normal development were assessed. Salinity performance curves were generated to identify salinity levels with deleterious effects (tipping points, 50% normal development and survival). Decreasing salinity and prolonged exposure significantly reduced larval survival and morphology, with salinity ranges optimal for survival and normal morphology decreasing with exposure time. To examine carryover effects on metamorphosis and juvenile production, competent larvae exposed to salinities seen in runoff plumes (25-34 ‰) on the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) were induced to settle. Juvenile production was highest in slightly reduced (30 ‰) and control (34 ‰) salinity treatments, with faster transition to the juvenile under extended 30 ‰ exposures. However by 5-days post settlement juveniles produced by larvae that had experienced 30‰ were smaller indicating the presence of negative carry over traits that reduce juvenile quality. This highlights the need to consider metamorphic transitions when evaluating the TRH, particularly as climate change intensifies low-salinity events on the GBR.