Strictly axisymmetric turbulence, i.e., turbulence governed by the Navier-Stokes equations modified such that the flow is invariant in the azimuthal direction, is a system intermediate between two-and three-dimensional turbulence. We investigate statistically steady states of this system by direct numerical simulation using a forcing protocol, which allows the injected energy in the toroidal and in the poloidal directions to be tuned independently. A sharp transition between a two-dimensional two-component (2D2C, nonswirling) flow and a two-dimensional three-component (2D3C, swirling) flow is observed. We derive a statistical model which reproduces this transition.