Cascading effects of feedbacks, disease, and climate change on alpine treeline dynamics

Smith-McKenna, Emily K.; Malanson, George P.; Resler, Lynn M.; Carstensen, Laurence W.; Prisley, Stephen P.; Tomback, Diana F.

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.08.019

Cited by 24 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 62 publications

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“…The first is that whitebark pine will likely continue to decline over the next several decades, but mostly from WPBR and, to a lesser extent, from climate change. This finding agrees with other simulation modeling efforts by Loehman et al (2011 b ) and Smith‐McKenna et al (). However, while the FireBGCv2 EFBR simulation results show more productive whitebark pine populations in the next of 95 years of climate warming, the long‐term future for whitebark pine for both simulation landscapes is less encouraging.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Keane

Holsinger

Mahalovich

et al. 2016

Restoration Ecology

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Major declines of whitebark pine forests throughout western North America from the combined effects of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreaks, fire exclusion policies, and the exotic disease white pine blister rust (WPBR) have spurred many restoration actions. However, projected future warming and drying may further exacerbate the species' decline and possibly compromise long‐term success of today's restoration activities. We evaluated successes of restoration treatments under future climate using a comprehensive landscape simulation experiment. The spatially explicit, ecological process model FireBGCv2 was used to simulate whitebark pine populations on two U.S. Northern Rocky Mountain landscapes over 95 years under two climate, three restoration, and two fire management scenarios. Major findings were that (1) whitebark pine can remain on some high mountain landscapes in a future climate albeit at lower basal areas (50% decrease), (2) restoration efforts, such as thinning and prescribed burning, are vital to ensure future whitebark pine forests, and (3) climate change impacts on whitebark pine vary by local setting. Whitebark pine restoration efforts will mostly be successful in the future but only if future populations are somewhat resistant to WPBR. Results were used to develop general guidelines that address climate change impacts for planning, designing, implementing, and evaluating fine‐scale restoration activities.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 92%

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Keane

Holsinger

Mahalovich

et al. 2016

Restoration Ecology

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“…This could lead to the perception that treeline is either slow to respond to warming trends or is not moving upwards in response to warming [79]. Agent-based modeling of the scenario "climate warming and disease" indicated that over a 500 to 800 year timeframe, whitebark pine in the presence of blister rust would decline by over 60%, Engelmann spruce exceeded whitebark pine in abundance after year 630, but the area occupied by tundra increased as the area occupied by conifers declined [91].…”

Section: Potential Impacts To Ate Whitebark Pine Communities From Whimentioning

confidence: 99%

Community Structure, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services in Treeline Whitebark Pine Communities: Potential Impacts from a Non-Native Pathogen

Tomback

Resler

Keane

et al. 2016

Forests

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Whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) has the largest and most northerly distribution of any white pine (Subgenus Strobus) in North America, encompassing 18˝latitude and 21˝longitude in western mountains. Within this broad range, however, whitebark pine occurs within a narrow elevational zone, including upper subalpine and treeline forests, and functions generally as an important keystone and foundation species. In the Rocky Mountains, whitebark pine facilitates the development of krummholz conifer communities in the alpine-treeline ecotone (ATE), and thus potentially provides capacity for critical ecosystem services such as snow retention and soil stabilization. The invasive, exotic pathogen Cronartium ribicola, which causes white pine blister rust, now occurs nearly rangewide in whitebark pine communities, to their northern limits. Here, we synthesize data from 10 studies to document geographic variation in structure, conifer species, and understory plants in whitebark pine treeline communities, and examine the potential role of these communities in snow retention and regulating downstream flows. Whitebark pine mortality is predicted to alter treeline community composition, structure, and function. Whitebark pine losses in the ATE may also alter response to climate warming. Efforts to restore whitebark pine have thus far been limited to subalpine communities, particularly through planting seedlings with potential blister rust resistance. We discuss whether restoration strategies might be appropriate for treeline communities.

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“…This outcome has recently been simulated using agent‐based modeling (Smith‐McKenna et al. ). Loss of P. albicaulis may limit the response of treeline communities to warming temperatures, leading to the perception that treeline is not moving up or moving more slowly than current models for temperature zones would suggest (Tomback and Resler ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Whitebark pine facilitation at treeline: potential interactions for disruption by an invasive pathogen

Tomback

Blakeslee

Wagner

et al. 2016

Ecology and Evolution

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In stressful environments, facilitation often aids plant establishment, but invasive plant pathogens may potentially disrupt these interactions. In many treeline communities in the northern Rocky Mountains of the U.S. and Canada, Pinus albicaulis, a stress‐tolerant pine, initiates tree islands at higher frequencies than other conifers – that is, leads to leeward tree establishment more frequently. The facilitation provided by a solitary (isolated) P. albicaulis leading to tree island initiation may be important for different life‐history stages for leeward conifers, but it is not known which life‐history stages are influenced and protection provided. However, P. albicaulis mortality from the non‐native pathogen Cronartium ribicola potentially disrupts these facilitative interactions, reducing tree island initiation. In two Rocky Mountain eastern slope study areas, we experimentally examined fundamental plant–plant interactions which might facilitate tree island formation: the protection offered by P. albicaulis to leeward seed and seedling life‐history stages, and to leeward krummholz conifers. In the latter case, we simulated mortality from C. ribicola for windward P. albicaulis to determine whether loss of P. albicaulis from C. ribicola impacts leeward conifers. Relative to other common solitary conifers at treeline, solitary P. albicaulis had higher abundance. More seeds germinated in leeward rock microsites than in conifer or exposed microsites, but the odds of cotyledon seedling survival during the growing season were highest in P. albicaulis microsites. Planted seedling survival was low among all microsites examined. Simulating death of windward P. albicaulis by C. ribicola reduced shoot growth of leeward trees. Loss of P. albicaulis to exotic disease may limit facilitation interactions and conifer community development at treeline and potentially impede upward movement as climate warms.

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Cascading effects of feedbacks, disease, and climate change on alpine treeline dynamics

Cited by 24 publications

References 62 publications

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Evaluating future success of whitebark pine ecosystem restoration under climate change using simulation modeling

Community Structure, Biodiversity, and Ecosystem Services in Treeline Whitebark Pine Communities: Potential Impacts from a Non-Native Pathogen

Whitebark pine facilitation at treeline: potential interactions for disruption by an invasive pathogen

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