Cascading vulnerability scenarios in the management of groundwater depletion and salinization in semi-arid areas

Parisi, Alessandro; Monno, Valeria; Fidelibus, María Dolores

doi:10.1016/j.ijdrr.2018.03.004

Cited by 37 publications

(26 citation statements)

References 32 publications

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“…Increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall can also negatively impact water resources, both in terms of quantity and quality [33], in an area that already has a water budget deficit, imports water from the neighboring regions [20] and overexploits its coastal aquifers with increasing salinization problems [34]. Our work can be a starting point but further studies are required to investigate these not so obvious and local aspects.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

D’Oria¹,

Tanda²,

Todaro³

2018

Water

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This study provides an up-to-date analysis of climate change over the Salento area (southeast Italy) using both historical data and multi-model projections of Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The accumulated anomalies of monthly precipitation and temperature records were analyzed and the trends in the climate variables were identified and quantified for two historical periods. The precipitation trends are in almost all cases not significant while the temperature shows statistically significant increasing tendencies especially in summer. A clear changing point around the 80s and at the end of the 90s was identified by the accumulated anomalies of the minimum and maximum temperature, respectively. The gradual increase of the temperature over the area is confirmed by the climate model projections, at short—(2016–2035), medium—(2046–2065) and long-term (2081–2100), provided by an ensemble of 13 RCMs, under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). All the models agree that the mean temperature will rise over this century, with the highest increases in the warm season. The total annual rainfall is not expected to significantly vary in the future although systematic changes are present in some months: a decrease in April and July and an increase in November. The daily temperature projections of the RCMs were used to identify potential variations in the characteristics of the heat waves; an increase of their frequency is expected over this century.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 92%

Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

D’Oria¹,

Tanda²,

Todaro³

2018

Water

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“…The predictive evaluation of cascading effects has been improved and applied to multi-hazard analysis, including for example new modelling tools for assessing disruptions and losses. 18,19 Moreover, new considerations and methodologies have been elaborated to understand better interdependencies and complexity, such as integrations between linear and networked risk assessments 20 , dynamic measures of criticality 21 , and resilience of urban environments in climate change scenarios 22,23 .…”

Section: What Are Cascading Disasters? David Alexander and Gianluca Pesmentioning

confidence: 99%

What are Cascading Disasters?

Alexander

Pescaroli

2019

Preprint

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Cascades have emerged as a new paradigm in disaster studies. The high level of dependency of modern populations on critical infrastructure and networks allows the impact of disasters to propagate through socio- economic systems. Where vulnerabilities overlap and interact, escalationpoints are created which can create secondary effects with greater impact than the primary event. This article explains how complexity can be categorised and analysed in order to find those weak points in society that enable cascading impacts to develop. Scenarios can be used to identify critical dependencies and guide measures designed to increase resilience.Experience suggests that many potential impacts of cascading disasters remain uninvestigated, which provides ample scope for escalation of impacts into complex forms of crisis.

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“…A different approach is offered by the work of Parisi et al (2018), who focus on hydrological droughts and their cascading effects upon social, economic, and environmental systems. The paper proposes Lecce (Italy) as a case study, for which the cascading paths associated with groundwater depletion and salinization of karst aquifers are described.…”

Section: Organizational Resilience For Effective Emergency Planning Amentioning

confidence: 99%

Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system

Pescaroli

Nones

Galbusera

et al. 2018

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction

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Cascading crises and disasters in the global interconnected system are emerging topics in today's disaster risk reduction research. The primary objective is improving the capability of our societies to cope with such events and mitigate their detrimental consequences through an evolved understanding of their nature. Rather than being merely considered as an outcome of low-probability/high-impact processes, cascading events can be associated with the cross-scale accumulation of vulnerability paths constituted by events waiting to happen. In this context, instead of focusing solely on triggering events, it seems important to point out the interactions orienting the escalation of secondary emergencies through vulnerability paths.This special issue integrates those emerging aspects with an operational approach that considers cascades as the complex, non-linear escalation of secondary emergencies. Key topics addressed by the contributions include: cross-domain modelling of interdependent systems; decision support systems; economic impact assessment of critical events; and cascades in the built environment, in social domains, and in applied emergency management. Our conclusions support the work of academia, and of public and private stakeholders, by providing a comprehensive analysis of the topic for the improvement of theory, the assessment of resilience, the formulation of policies for managing crises, and operational planning for emergencies.

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Cascading vulnerability scenarios in the management of groundwater depletion and salinization in semi-arid areas

Cited by 37 publications

References 32 publications

Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

Assessment of Local Climate Change: Historical Trends and RCM Multi-Model Projections Over the Salento Area (Italy)

What are Cascading Disasters?

Understanding and mitigating cascading crises in the global interconnected system

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