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On the eve of the new year, 2021, a single landslide claimed 70 souls in Ask, a village in Norway. This tragic event highlighted, once again, the need to understand whether research efforts to map landslide susceptible areas could help save lives and if these identified landslide‐prone regions change with time. A landslide is a downslope gravitational mass wasting of earth materials. Hence, a classification model could estimate the likelihood of a landslide occurring under certain terrain conditions studying the landslide predisposing factors, such as hillslope inclination and land cover, of old landslides. Projecting these likelihoods in a landscape would be a landslide susceptibility map, which highlights areas that could potentially generate a landslide without any implication of an occurrence time. However, landslide predisposing factors change over time, resetting those susceptibility estimates—they are not static as traditionally assumed by most models. These changes could be evident, such as artificial alterations in land cover, or disguised, such as accumulated damage on hillslopes in the form of subsurface cracks due to a large earthquake. In times referred to as legacy effects, those latter hidden effects could be assessed by studying the spatial distribution of those landslides triggered by the same event. This perspective lists several potential biases of the time‐invariant landslide susceptibility approach and offers hints to overcome these challenges using a more dynamic model that evolves.
On the eve of the new year, 2021, a single landslide claimed 70 souls in Ask, a village in Norway. This tragic event highlighted, once again, the need to understand whether research efforts to map landslide susceptible areas could help save lives and if these identified landslide‐prone regions change with time. A landslide is a downslope gravitational mass wasting of earth materials. Hence, a classification model could estimate the likelihood of a landslide occurring under certain terrain conditions studying the landslide predisposing factors, such as hillslope inclination and land cover, of old landslides. Projecting these likelihoods in a landscape would be a landslide susceptibility map, which highlights areas that could potentially generate a landslide without any implication of an occurrence time. However, landslide predisposing factors change over time, resetting those susceptibility estimates—they are not static as traditionally assumed by most models. These changes could be evident, such as artificial alterations in land cover, or disguised, such as accumulated damage on hillslopes in the form of subsurface cracks due to a large earthquake. In times referred to as legacy effects, those latter hidden effects could be assessed by studying the spatial distribution of those landslides triggered by the same event. This perspective lists several potential biases of the time‐invariant landslide susceptibility approach and offers hints to overcome these challenges using a more dynamic model that evolves.
Fully softened shear strength mobilized in first-time slope failures, introduced by Skempton in 1970, corresponds to a random edge-face arrangement and interaction of clay particles in an entirely destructured fabric of stiff clays and clay shales. A series of triaxial compression tests was conducted on reconstituted normally consolidated specimens of 15 stiff clay and clay shale compositions. Based on the laboratory results an empirical correlation for secant fully softened friction angle, ϕ'fssσ'n, was developed for clay compositions with plasticity index in the range of 10 to 250%, in effective normal stress range of 10 to 700 kPa. The laboratory measurements confirm an empirical equation for fully softened shear strength in terms of parameters ϕ'fss100 and mfs. The field application of secant fully softened friction angle was examined by stability analyses of 63 first-time slope failures in 38 geologic materials. These include 45 slope failures with a segment of observed slip surface at residual condition and the back-scarp mobilizing fully softened shear strength, and 18 slope failures with entire observed slip surface at fully softened condition. The back-calculated fully softened secant friction angles for first-time slope failures are in good agreement with ϕ'fssσ'n correlation based on laboratory tests.
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