Case Study: Applying a Regional Cge Model for Estimation of Indirect Economic Losses Due to Damaged Highway Bridges

Tirasirichai, Chakkaphan; Enke, David

doi:10.1080/00137910701686996

Cited by 41 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…CGE(computable general equilibrium) 모형은 경제 변수들 사이의 관계를 연립방정식으로 표현하여 간접 적 경제손실을 평가할 수 있는 방법이다 (Brookshire et al, 1997;Rose and Guha, 2004;Rose and Liao, 2005;Tirasirichai and Enke, 2007) …”

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“…, 연립 방정식모형을 이용하는 연구 (Guimaraes et al, 1993), 투입-산출 분석모형을 활용하는 연구 (Lu et al, 2002;Gordon et al, 1995;Rose et al, 1997;Okuyama, 2004), 계량경제모형을 이용하는 연구 (Ellson et al,, 1984;West and Lenze, 1994;Tierney, 1997;SaldaaZorrilla and Sandberg, 2009), CGE(computable general equilibrium) 모형을 이용하는 연구 (Brookshire et al, 1997;Rose and Guha, 2004;Tirasirichai and Enke, 2007) 등 다양한 방법론이 활용되고 있다.…”

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Research Methodology for the Economic Impact Assessment of Natural Disasters and Its Applicability for the Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Disaster

Jiang¹,

Yu²,

Yoon³

2014

Economic and Environmental Geology

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There are many studies for the economic impact assessment of natural disasters, but there are few for volcanic disasters. Domestic academic research is not under active discussion because of the lack of national and social interest for volcanic eruption. This study investigated the research methodology for the economic impact assessment of natural disasters and discussed whether these can be applied to the economic impact analysis for the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster. The main findings are as follows: Firstly, Asia-Pacific region is the most affected by natural disasters and has the largest scale of damage. Asian and American Continent have the most economic damage. Secondly, Considering the types of damage caused by natural disasters and its complex structure, several methodologies that could be possible to estimate economic consequential damages have been compared. When applying each methodology to the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster, the scale of damage is likely to be over-estimated or under-estimated because of model-specific features. Thus, estimated values should be compared to each other after calculating the damage results. Thirdly, Japanese academic research on the volcanic disaster will be used as the starting point of the economic impact assessment studies for Baekdu Mountain. Using computer SW such as Hazus which is used in United States and RiskScape from New Zealand is also a good method to predict economic impact of the Baekdu Mountain volcanic disaster.

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Research Methodology for the Economic Impact Assessment of Natural Disasters and Its Applicability for the Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Disaster

Jiang¹,

Yu²,

Yoon³

2014

Economic and Environmental Geology

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“…Some types of direct involuntary costs can be quantified as they include damage to buildings and roads, production failures, and property losses (Tirasirichai and Enke, 2007). These losses can be estimated using repair or replacement costs.…”

Section: Disaster Mitigation and Preparedness Policiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

2013

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The optimal level of investment in mitigation strategies is usually difficult to ascertain in the context of disaster planning. This research develops a model to provide such direction by relying on cost of quality literature. This paper begins by introducing a static approach inspired by Joseph M. Juran's cost of quality management model (Juran, 1951) to demonstrate the non-linear trade-offs in disaster management expenditure. Next it presents a dynamic model that includes the impact of dynamic interactions of the changing level of risk, the cost of living, and the learning/investments that may alter over time. It illustrates that there is an optimal point that minimises the total cost of disaster management, and that this optimal point moves as governments learn from experience or as states get richer. It is hoped that the propositions contained herein will help policymakers to plan, evaluate, and justify voluntary disaster mitigation expenditures.

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“…However, the model did not take into account positive aspects, such as the increase in capital stock during reconstruction periods. Thus, the model only indicates the maximum potential losses due to natural disasters (Tirasirichai and Enke, 2007;. Rose et al (2007) evaluated the economic costs of an electricity blackout using the CGE model, incorporating the positive effects of resilience, including substitution, efficiency enhancement and price signals, but they did not model the reconstruction procedures that also exerted positive effects on the economy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

Xie

et al. 2014

Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Disaster damages have negative effects on the economy, whereas reconstruction investment has positive effects. The aim of this study is to model economic causes of disasters and recovery involving the positive effects of reconstruction activities. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is a promising approach because it can incorporate these two kinds of shocks into a unified framework and furthermore avoid the double-counting problem. In order to factor both shocks into the CGE model, direct loss is set as the amount of capital stock reduced on the supply side of the economy; a portion of investments restores the capital stock in an existing period; an investment-driven dynamic model is formulated according to available reconstruction data, and the rest of a given country's saving is set as an endogenous variable to balance the fixed investment. The 2008 Wenchuan Earthquake is selected as a case study to illustrate the model, and three scenarios are constructed: S 0 (no disaster occurs), S 1 (disaster occurs with reconstruction investment) and S 2 (disaster occurs without reconstruction investment). S 0 is taken as business as usual, and the differences between S 1 and S 0 and that between S 2 and S 0 can be interpreted as economic losses including reconstruction and excluding reconstruction, respectively. The study showed that output from S 1 is found to be closer to real data than that from S 2 . Economic loss under S2 is roughly 1.5 times that under S 1 . The gap in the economic aggregate between S 1 and S 0 is reduced to 3 % at the end of government-led reconstruction activity, a level that should take another four years to achieve under S 2 .

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Case Study: Applying a Regional Cge Model for Estimation of Indirect Economic Losses Due to Damaged Highway Bridges

Cited by 41 publications

References 21 publications

Research Methodology for the Economic Impact Assessment of Natural Disasters and Its Applicability for the Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Disaster

Research Methodology for the Economic Impact Assessment of Natural Disasters and Its Applicability for the Baekdu Mountain Volcanic Disaster

A dynamic model for costing disaster mitigation policies

Modeling the economic costs of disasters and recovery: analysis using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model

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