Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

Rubio-Salcedo, Marta; Psomas, Achilleas; Prieto, María; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Martínez, Isabel

doi:10.1007/s10531-016-1289-1

Cited by 46 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 105 publications

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“…Vulnerability factors relevant to conservation include habitat connectivity to facilitate more rapid dispersal and migration, increased gene flow and recombinant evolution, alongside greater extents of heterogeneous high quality habitat with microclimatic refugia that reduce the effective velocity of climate change, while also increasing a potential for long distance dispersal given more populations and higher densities of propagules entering the air mass. Thus, in deforested landscapes, providing a sufficient extent of high quality and connected habitat can become a generic conservation tool in reducing lichen epiphyte vulnerability [203], while combining bioclimatic modelling with trait-based analysis [43,90] could provide a summary of species guilds positioned along a continuum of vulnerability. functionally relevant predictors and small-scale covariables, compared to models projected to future scenarios (cf.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This has been achieved in different ways. Most studies have used a threshold of model probability or likelihood of occurrence in designating a cut-off for climatically suitable sites, thus calculating a shifted distribution or extent of these locations between the baseline and climate change scenarios [86][87][88][89][90][91][92]. A smaller number of studies have used a net difference of probability/likelihood values to calculate a shift in climatic suitability for a given region [93][94][95].…”

Section: Challenge 2: Projection To Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…in the Carpathians [86] with > 90% loss of suitable climate space for high-elevation lichens endemic to the Appalachians [87]. Analysis for lichen biogeographic groups can indicate the contrast between species with losses and gains of bioclimatic space [96], with a loss of suitable climate space for c. 75% of species modelled for the Iberian Peninsula by the 2080s [90]. Projection of suitable climate space for 382 lichen epiphytes in Britain [94,95] indicated 38% of species losing and 62% gaining suitable climate space, again by the 2080s, and emphasising the potential scale of compositional turnover in lichen diversity.…”

Section: Challenge 2: Projection To Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

Ellis

2019

Diversity

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This paper provides an overview of bioclimatic models applied to lichen species, supporting their potential use in this context as indicators of climate change risk. First, it provides a brief summary of climate change risk, pointing to the relevance of lichens as a topic area. Second, it reviews the past use of lichen bioclimatic models, applied for a range of purposes with respect to baseline climate, and the application of data sources, statistical methods, model extents and resolution and choice of predictor variables. Third, it explores additional challenges to the use of lichen bioclimatic models, including: 1. The assumption of climatically controlled lichen distributions, 2. The projection to climate change scenarios, and 3. The issue of nonanalogue climates and model transferability. Fourth, the paper provides a reminder that bioclimatic models estimate change in the extent or range of a species suitable climate space, and that an outcome will be determined by vulnerability responses, including potential for migration, adaptation, and acclimation, within the context of landscape habitat quality. The degree of exposure to climate change, estimated using bioclimatic models, can help to inform an understanding of whether vulnerability responses are sufficient for species resilience. Fifth, the paper draws conclusions based on its overview, highlighting the relevance of bioclimatic models to conservation, support received from observational data, and pointing the way towards mechanistic approaches that align with field-scale climate change experiments.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Challenge 2: Projection To Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Challenge 2: Projection To Climate Change Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

Ellis

2019

Diversity

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“…Thus, high negative relative exposure values indicate that a species decreases the suitable area in that scenario, whereas higher positive values indicate an increase of the suitable area. The estimation and comparison of areas to estimate changes in the different modeling scenarios is a widely implemented method in ENM (e.g., Nori et al, 2013;Nori, Carrasco & Leynaud, 2014;Bonino et al, 2015;Rubio-Salcedo et al, 2016). This might be interpreted as a rigid and conservative estimate of changes from the predicted suitable areas, since we did not considered areas of recolonization after a potential disappearance of suitable environment.…”

Section: Climate and Envirnnmental Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the south american lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

Minoli

Cacciali

Morando

et al. 2018

Preprint

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Background. The consequences of past or future climate change have been studied in many physical and biological systems, and their effects could change the ecology and spatial distribution of suitable areas for a wide variety of organisms. Methods.We analyzed the environmental and geographic space of the current suitable area and we projected these conditions into Mid-Holocene and 2050 RCP8.5 scenarios. Through these projections, we assessed and quantified whether climate change would affect the distribution and size of environmental and geographic space for lizard species of the genus Teius.Results. The potentially suitable geographic area for the Mid-Holocene decreased for T. oculatus (-29.55%) and for T. teyou (-6.82%), but for T. suquiensis it was inferred as a larger suitable area (+26%). For the future scenario all species showed a decrease in the potentially suitable area compared to the present (T. oculatus = -9.30%, T. teyou = -0.79%, T. suquiensis = -37.58%). The first 3 PCA axes in the environmental space explained more than 86% of the variation for each temporal scenario for all species. The higher contribution for PC1-2 in Mid-Holocene and Present were mostly related to temperature and for PC3 with altitude variables: and for the 2050 scenario were temperature for PC1, precipitation for PC2 and altitude-temperature for PC3. The hypervolumen distance for T. oculatus from the Present scenario to Mid-Holocene = 67.80 and for 2050 = 309.10; for T. teyou to Mid-Holocene = 95.67 and for 2050 = 442.67; for T. suquiensis to Mid-Holocene = 275.57 and for 2050 = 248.07. Discussion.These results suggest that current geographic space versus the other temporal forecast of all Teius species, showed different specific magnitude changes in their potentially suitable areas. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their environmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes. Discgssinn.These results suggest that current geographic space versus the other temporal forecast of all Teius species, showed different specific magnitude changes in their potentially suitable areas. This work illustrates how ectothermic organisms might have to face major changes in their environmental and geographic space as a consequence of the effect of climate changes.

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“…The consequences of altered fire regimes for lichens may be particularly significant in light of expected effects of climate change on lichen communities. Climate envelopes for lichens are rapidly shifting, suggesting that large areas of contemporary lichen ranges may become inhospitable, potentially leading to range shifts or contractions (Allen & Lendemer, 2016;Nascimbene et al, 2016;Rubio-Salcedo, Psomas, Prieto, Zimmermann, & Martínez, 2016). Organisms often experience the strongest and most limiting environmental filters in the establishment life phase, and establishment has been shown to limit lichen distributions (Werth et al, 2006).…”

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confidence: 99%

Altered fire regimes cause long‐term lichen diversity losses

Miller

Root

Safford

2018

Global Change Biology

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Many global ecosystems have undergone shifts in fire regimes in recent decades, such as changes in fire size, frequency, and/or severity. Recent research shows that increases in fire size, frequency, and severity can lead to long-persisting deforestation, but the consequences of shifting fire regimes for biodiversity of other vegetative organisms (such as understory plants, fungi, and lichens) remain poorly understood. Understanding lichen responses to wildfire is particularly important because lichens play crucial roles in nutrient cycling and supporting wildlife in many ecosystems. Lichen responses to fire have been little studied, and most previous research has been limited to small geographic areas (e.g. studies of a single fire), making it difficult to establish generalizable patterns. To investigate long-term effects of fire severity on lichen communities, we sampled epiphytic lichen communities in 104 study plots across California's greater Sierra Nevada region in areas that burned in five wildfires, ranging from 4 to 16 years prior to sampling. The conifer forest ecosystems we studied have undergone a notable increase in fire severity in recent decades, and we sample across the full gradient of fire severity to infer how shifting fire regimes may influence landscape-level biodiversity. We find that low-severity fire has little to no effect on lichen communities. Areas that burned at moderate and high severities, however, have significantly and progressively lower lichen richness and abundance. Importantly, we observe very little postfire lichen recolonization on burned substrates even more than 15 years after fire. Our multivariate model suggests that the hotter, drier microclimates that occur after fire removes forest canopies may prevent lichen reestablishment, meaning that lichens are not likely to recolonize until mature trees regenerate. These findings suggest that altered fire regimes may cause broad and long-persisting landscape-scale biodiversity losses that could ultimately impact multiple trophic levels.

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Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

Cited by 46 publications

References 105 publications

Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

Climate Change, Bioclimatic Models and the Risk to Lichen Diversity

Predicting the spatial and temporal effects of climate change on the south american lizard genus Teius (Squamata: Teiidae)

Altered fire regimes cause long‐term lichen diversity losses

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