Focusing on the special stratum conditions of upper-soft and lower-hard fissured rock strata, this paper conducts quantitative research and analysis on the factors influencing the ground settlement caused by shield tunnel construction considering the coupled hydromechanical properties and presents a corresponding numerical simulation-artificial neural network-Bayesian network- (NS-ANN-BN-) based method. In this method, with a subway shield tunnel as the engineering context, three numerical models are established, in which the shield tunnel is located in soft strata, the shield tunnel is located in semisoft and semihard strata, or the shield tunnel is located in hard strata. According to the numerical simulation (NS) calculations, the ground settlement values under the three types of strata are 38.96 mm, 10.42 mm, and 3.13 mm, respectively. A radial basis function artificial neural network (RBF-ANN) is used to establish the nonlinear mapping relationship between the stratum parameters and the ground settlement, and the training samples and test samples are generated through NS to train the RBF-ANN. After the training is completed, the accuracy of the neural network meets the requirements. The elastic moduli of coarse sand~gravel sand k3 and moderately weathered rhyolite k4 and the cohesion of moderately weathered rhyolite c4 are selected as the key parameters. A large number of training cases are generated through the RBF-ANN, and the Bayesian network (BN) prior probability is calculated by self-learning. A BN model of ground settlement for shield tunnel construction in the upper-soft and lower-hard fissured rock strata is established. The BN back analysis method is used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors of the ground settlement. The results show that when the tunnel is located in soft strata, the surface settlement is mainly affected by parameter k3. When the ground settlement increases considerably, the three parameters all have a strong influence. When the tunnel is located in semisoft and semihard strata, the influence of the three parameters on the ground settlement is weak. When the tunnel is located in hard strata, the ground settlement is mainly affected by parameter k4. When the ground settlement greatly increases, parameters k3 and c4 have less influence. When the tunnel is located in strata with different soft-hard ratios, the ground settlement is mainly affected by the elastic moduli of coarse sand~gravel sand and moderately weathered rhyolite. This method can provide a reference for the ground settlement analysis of shield tunnel construction in areas with similar fissured rock strata.