Cases and Scenarios in Decisions Under Uncertainty

Gilboa, Itzhak; Minardi, Stefania; Samuelson, Larry

doi:10.2139/ssrn.2948253

Cited by 6 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 36 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…This may be a way of linking the update to ex ante behaviour. Gilboa et al (2017) propose a model of choice which combines case-based and expected-utility reasoning, claiming that the former is more appropriate and widespread in the aftermath of surprising events. Since the model is static, it does not draw any link between preferences prior to a (surprising) event and posterior preferences, whereas, as noted, confidence will play a role in relating the two under the approach proposed here.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Consider how people should update on events such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers, or the a priori surprising economic circumstances since. These are cases where the appropriateness of the Bayesian approach has been questioned (Gilboa et al, 2017;Giacomini et al, 2019). By contrast, assimilating the IID assumption in Example 2 with 'previously accepted' economic thinking, it is clear that the confidence approach once again provides guidance.…”

Section: Scientific Discovery Crises and Surprisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Updating confidence in beliefs

Hill¹

2022

Journal of Economic Theory

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Scientific Discovery Crises and Surprisesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Updating confidence in beliefs

Hill¹

2022

Journal of Economic Theory

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

“…One of the surprising recent developments in case-based decision theory points to its potential to deal with unforeseen contingencies. Gilboa et al [2017] study a model of decision-making under uncertainty where the agent evaluates possible actions both by their case-based similarity and a set of "scenarios" affecting outcomes. "Scenarios" are similar to states in determining the outcomes of an action, yet they need not be mutually exclusive nor need they completely determine outcomes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Case-Based Decision Theory: From the Choice of Actions to Reasoning about Theories

Eichberger¹,

Guerdjikova²

2020

Revue Économique

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In the 1990's David Schmeidler and Itzhak Gilboa initiated the study of decision making under uncertainty in a completely new framework, without states but with data sets as the information on which to build choice behavior. While the first formulations of Case-Based Decision Theory (CBDT) aimed at applications in economic decision making, this theory which takes data as a primitive concept provides an alternative foundation for deriving beliefs and driving the choice of predictions. This opened a new perspective on old questions in statistics and artificial intelligence. In this review, we summarize these developments in Case-Based Decision Theory and highlight the immensely innovative nature of David Schmeidler's academic work.Dans les années 1990's David Schmeidler et Itzhak Gilboa ont introduit un nouvel cadre d'analyse des décisions sous incertitude: les bases des données se substituent aux états du monde comme primitive du modèle et informent le choix du décideur. Au début la théorie de décision au cas-parcas était orientée principalement vers des applications économiques, mais ses méthodes se sont avérées aussi pertinentes pour l'analyse des croyances et des prédictions statistiques. Ceci a ouvert des nouvelles perspectives sur des questions classiques en statistique et en intelligence artificielle. Dans cet article, nous passons en revue ces développements et mettons en avance le caractère extrêmement novateur des travaux académiques de David Schmeidler.

show abstract

“…For example, when deciding whether to introduce a new product in a particular market, relevant influences might include future events such as competitor moves and regulatory changes, and background conditions such as prevailing technologies and existing market demographics. The second point, one we have already emphasised, is that scenario spaces are almost always incomplete (Gilboa, Minardi, & Samuelson, 2017;Shackle, 1979), typically running to only a relatively small number of scenarios ; see also Kahneman & Lovallo, 1993;Lovallo & Kahneman, 2003).…”

Section: Theorizing the Scenario Spacementioning

confidence: 99%

Heuristic Methods for Updating Small World Representations in Strategic Situations of Knightian Uncertainty

Feduzi

Faulkner

Runde

et al. 2022

AMR

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent studies on the construction and use of "small world representations" in strategic decisionmaking under Knightian uncertainty say little about how such representations should be updated over the implementation phase. This paper draws on the psychology of reasoning to take a step towards answering this question. We begin by theorizing small world representations and how the scenario spaces they contain are constructed and may be updated over time. We then introduce two well-known heuristic methods of inquiry, disconfirmation and counterfactual reasoning, translate them into practical procedures for updating scenario spaces, and compare the relative performance of these procedures in strategic situations of Knightian uncertainty. Our principal findings are that the procedure based on counterfactual reasoning is superior to the one based on disconfirmation with respect to (1) counteracting the confirmation bias, (2) promoting the exploration of the set of imaginable scenarios, and (3) facilitating action to mitigate or exploit the consequences of what would otherwise have been Black Swans. We close with some broader implications for the study of strategic decision-making under Knightian uncertainty.It is widely recognized that decision-makers operating in situations of Knightian uncertainty

show abstract

Cases and Scenarios in Decisions Under Uncertainty

Cited by 6 publications

References 36 publications

Updating confidence in beliefs

Updating confidence in beliefs

Case-Based Decision Theory: From the Choice of Actions to Reasoning about Theories

Heuristic Methods for Updating Small World Representations in Strategic Situations of Knightian Uncertainty

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About