Casting Ballots When Knowing Results

Araújo, Victor; Gatto, Malu A. C.

doi:10.1017/s000712342100034x

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 53 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Particularly strong evidence in favor of the bandwagon effect comes for example from a recent analysis of voting data collected during the 2018 Brazilian presidential elections, in which technical glitches caused some voters to cast their ballots after initial results were announced. Results suggested a sizeable bandwagon and no underdog effect (Araújo & Gatto, 2022). Other strong evidence for a bandwagon effect comes from a controlled experiment, which showed that participants were more likely to donate to charities that received the support of a majority of other participants (Farjam, 2021).…”

Section: Bandwagon Vs Underdog Effectsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Disentangling the factors behind shifting voting intentions: The bandwagon effect reflects heuristic processing, while the underdog effect reflects fairness concerns

Lammers¹,

Bukowski²,

Potoczek³

et al. 2022

J. Soc. Polit. Psych.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In today’s elections, abundantly available polls inform voters what parties lead and what parties trail. This allows voters to accurately predict the likely outcomes of elections before the final results are in. Voters may react to these ex-ante election outcomes by shifting their votes either toward leading parties, often termed the “bandwagon effect” or toward trailing parties, often termed the “underdog effect”. The published literature presents different perspectives on the strength of both effects and the underlying psychological processes. Three preregistered studies (total N = 1,424) test the psychological causes of both effects. Exploratory Study 1 relates differences in interpersonal, moral, strategic, and epistemic psychological factors to shifts in voting intentions before the 2019 Polish parliamentary elections. Results suggest that the bandwagon effect reflects a lack of political expertise, whereas the underdog effect reflects fairness concerns. To provide experimental evidence, Studies 2a and 2b manipulate these two factors in a simulated election design. The results confirm that low expertise increases the bandwagon effect and that fairness concerns increase the underdog effect.

show abstract

Section: Bandwagon Vs Underdog Effectsmentioning

confidence: 98%

Disentangling the factors behind shifting voting intentions: The bandwagon effect reflects heuristic processing, while the underdog effect reflects fairness concerns

Lammers¹,

Bukowski²,

Potoczek³

et al. 2022

J. Soc. Polit. Psych.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Stigmatized Campaign Practices and the Gendered Dynamics of Electoral Viability

Silva

Gatto

2021

Journal of Politics in Latin America

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

What happens when a traditional source of political capital becomes a health hazard? Stigmatized electoral practices, such as vote buying, are a double-edged sword: While these strategies may signal candidates’ electoral strength, they may also entail reputational costs. In normal times, street campaigns are a non-stigmatized electoral practice. During the Covid-19 pandemic, however, they imposed health risks. Employing data from a national survey experiment conducted in Brazil prior to the 2020 municipal elections ( N = 2025), we extend research on the employment of stigmatized campaigns and the gendered dynamics of electoral viability. We find that voters evaluate candidates who engage in face-to-face activities as less electorally viable and report lower intent to support them. These dynamics do not impact all candidates equally: Voters more harshly punish women candidates who conduct street campaigns than men, leading women to lose the advantage they have over men when both employ non-stigmatized campaign practices.

show abstract

Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto

Pereira,

Nunes

2024

Opin. Publica

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As pesquisas de intenção de voto para presidente no primeiro turno de 2022 divergiram do resultado de domingo (2 de outubro), levando a críticas de que teriam sido cometidos erros. Este artigo examina uma explicação alternativa para o fato, segundo a qual mudanças de preferências ocorreriam entre as pesquisas e a votação. Embora impopular, a explicação tem respaldo na literatura com foco em dois processos: o voto estratégico e o alinhamento dos indecisos. Utilizando um experimento feito uma semana antes da eleição, mostramos que eleitores indecisos e de candidaturas menores apresentavam propensão a serem persuadidos por vídeos de campanha. Também utilizamos uma pesquisa feita às vésperas do pleito, para desenvolver modelos que identificam eleitores propensos a mudarem suas escolhas, de modo a ajustar a estimativa da votação. Os resultados sugerem que as mudanças tardias seriam um fenômeno mais do que plausível nas eleições brasileiras recentes.

show abstract

Casting Ballots When Knowing Results

Cited by 3 publications

References 53 publications

Disentangling the factors behind shifting voting intentions: The bandwagon effect reflects heuristic processing, while the underdog effect reflects fairness concerns

Disentangling the factors behind shifting voting intentions: The bandwagon effect reflects heuristic processing, while the underdog effect reflects fairness concerns

Stigmatized Campaign Practices and the Gendered Dynamics of Electoral Viability

Pesquisas eleitorais e mudanças tardias na decisão do voto

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About