Catching a draft: on the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft

Berri, David J.; Simmons, Robert

doi:10.1007/s11123-009-0154-6

Cited by 57 publications

(65 citation statements)

References 9 publications

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“…NonDiv1FBS is a dummy variable equal to 1 if the observed player was drafted from a school that was not a Division I-FBS school while NonBC-SAQ is a dummy variable equal to 1 if the observed player did not play at a school that was part of a Bowl Championship Series automatic qualifying (BCSAQ) conference. It is expected both of these variables will have positive and significant coefficients as this result would be consistent with previous research incorporating these variables (e.g., Berri & Simmons, 2011;Treme & Allen, 2009) The variable CombinePart is a dummy variable equal to 1 if the player participated in one of the combine events besides being interviewed by teams. Data regarding combine participation was collected from the NFL Combine Results website.…”

Section: Data and Empirical Specificationssupporting

confidence: 84%

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College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Palmer

Duhan

Soebbing

2015

JSA

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Abstract. Over the past several decades, National Football League (NFL) executives have tried to devise ways to deter off-field misconduct of its players. Since the year 2000, the NFL instituted a Personal Conduct Policy governing the actions of players already in the league. The policy was further modified in April 2007 by Commissioner Roger Goodell. The question the present research asks is what is the relationship between an amateur player's misconduct in his final year of college and his overall pick in the NFL Draft. By extension, the present research looks to see if this relationship changes with the modification of the Personal Conduct Policy. Examining the NFL Draft from 1999 through 2013, the present research finds that misconduct decreased a player's draft position meaning his draft position improved. However, the modification of the Personal Conduct Policy leads to an insignificant result suggesting that team executives are beginning to examining an amateur player's misconduct more closely with the new policy.

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Section: Data and Empirical Specificationssupporting

confidence: 84%

“…The NFL Draft was instituted in 1936 and is the main mechanism used by the NFL to allocate amateur talent (Berri & Simmons, 2011). Also, prior studies show that draft position is a significant indicator regarding playing time and career length (e.g., Hendricks, DeBrock, & Koenker, 2003;Staw & Hoang, 1995).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Palmer

Duhan

Soebbing

2015

JSA

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“…We only had access to Wonderlic scores for 5 out of 315 tight ends, so we were unable to use it in our analysis. However, Berri and Simmons (2009) a study on quarterbacks did have sufficient Wonderlic data to use (likely because quarterback Wonderlic scores are more often leaked to the public). That study did conclude that Wonderlic scores were important for prediction of draft results, but not for future NFL performance.…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League

Mulholland

Jensen

2014

Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports

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National Football League teams have complex drafting strategies based on college and combine performance that are intended to predict success in the NFL. In this paper, we focus on the tight end position, which is seeing growing importance as the NFL moves towards a more passing-oriented league. We create separate prediction models for 1. the NFL Draft and 2. NFL career performance based on data available prior to the NFL Draft: college performance, the NFL combine, and physical measures. We use linear regression and recursive partitioning decision trees to predict both NFL draft order and NFL career success based on this pre-draft data. With both modeling approaches, we find that the measures that are most predictive of NFL draft order are not necessarily the most predictive measures of NFL career success. This finding suggests that we can improve upon current drafting strategies for tight ends. After factoring the salary cost of drafted players into our analysis in order to predict tight ends with the highest value, we find that size measures (BMI, weight, height) are over-emphasized in the NFL draft. Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football LeagueAbstract: National Football League teams have complex drafting strategies based on college and combine performance that are intended to predict success in the NFL. In this paper, we focus on the tight end position, which is seeing growing importance as the NFL moves towards a more passing-oriented league. We create separate prediction models for 1. the NFL Draft and 2. NFL career performance based on data available prior to the NFL Draft: college performance, the NFL combine, and physical measures. We use linear regression and recursive partitioning decision trees to predict both NFL draft order and NFL career success based on this pre-draft data. With both modeling approaches, we find that the measures that are most predictive of NFL draft order are not necessarily the most predictive measures of NFL career success. This finding suggests that we can improve upon current drafting strategies for tight ends. After factoring the salary cost of drafted players into our analysis in order to predict tight ends with the highest value, we find that size measures (BMI, weight, height) are over-emphasized in the NFL draft.

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“…A recent work by Berri and Simmons (2011) offers a detailed examination of the National Football League (NFL) draft for quarterbacks, highlighting the difficulties involved in making these complex assessments. Using explicit player performance measures, they investigate (among other things) factors that are used by NFL teams to assess talent when drafting quarterbacks.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Wonderlic, Race, and the NFL Draft

Gill

Brajer

2011

Journal of Sports Economics

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Extending the work of Berri and Simmons on the National Football League (NFL) player draft and the Scouting Combine, the authors use the Wonderlic cognitive ability test to test one implication of a simple Phelps model of statistical discrimination in the NFL draft. The authors treat Wonderlic scores as a noisy signal of a player's adaptability to the NFL game that may be more informative for White players than it is for Black players. The authors find that Wonderlic scores are important in explaining relative draft position for quarterbacks, offensive linemen, and tight ends. At the same time, the authors find limited evidence to support statistical discrimination based on Wonderlic scores.

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Catching a draft: on the process of selecting quarterbacks in the National Football League amateur draft

Abstract: Quarterback, College, Draft, Performance, L83,

Cited by 57 publications

References 9 publications

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

College deviance and the effects on NFL amateur draft selection: Analyzing the Personal Conduct Policy

Predicting the draft and career success of tight ends in the National Football League

Wonderlic, Race, and the NFL Draft

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