Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm

Abstract

The literature on probabilistic hazard and risk assessment shows a rich and wide variety of modeling strategies tailored to specific perils. On one hand, catastrophe (CAT) modeling, a recent professional and scientific discipline, provides a general structure for the quantification of natural (e.g., geological, hydrological, meteorological) and man-made (e.g., terrorist, cyber) catastrophes. On the other hand, peril characteristics and related processes have yet to be categorized and harmonized to enable adequate comparison, limit silo effects, and simplify the implementation of emerging risks. We reviewed the literature for more than 20 perils from the natural, technological, and socio-economic systems to categorize them by following the CAT modeling hazard pipeline: (1) event source → (2) size distribution → (3) intensity footprint. We defined the following categorizations, which are applicable to any type of peril, specifically: (1) point/line/area/track/diffuse source, (2) discrete event/continuous flow, and (3) spatial diffusion (static)/threshold (passive)/sustained propagation (dynamic). We then harmonized the various hazard processes using energy as the common metric, noting that the hazard pipeline’s underlying physical process consists of some energy being transferred from an energy stock (the source), via an event, to the environment (the footprint).

A Digital Template for the Generic Multi-Risk (GenMR) Framework: A Virtual Natural Environment

“…The peril source type classification, which follows [ 32 ], is given in Table 1 alongside the relationships to environmental objects. Fault segments, rivers, the floodable coastline, and volcanos are hence associated to tectonic hills, valleys, the coastal strip, and volcanic edifices, respectively.…”

“…Depending on the topography and soil parameterizations, some areas may be unstable and thus prone to collapse. This is evaluated by mapping the factor of safety with is the gravitational acceleration, 1000 kg/m 3 is the unit weight of water, and is the slope angle [ 32 , 45 ]. With Equation (2) representing the ratio of resisting forces to driving forces, an unstable slope is represented by the condition .…”

“…The hazard intensity footprints are generated following the three classes of models described in [ 32 ]: Analytical expressions ( Section 2.2.1 ), threshold models ( Section 2.2.2 ), and numeric models (i.e., cellular automata, Section 2.2.3 ).…”

“…Another subproject investigated how GenMR could be integrated under the umbrella of multi-risk governance [ 3 , 5 , 31 ]. The most recent development was the categorization and harmonization of hazard assessment for individual perils occurring in the natural, technological, and socio-economic systems (~20 perils) [ 32 ].…”

“…It must be realistic enough to correctly model multi-risk processes while simple enough to convey the richness of plausible multi-risk processes in an intelligible manner. Here, only the natural environment is described; the technological (built) and socio-economic environments will be added at a later stage, which will then allow to implement any type of peril [ 32 ] and interaction [ 25 ].…”