Causal chains, policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

Nesheim, Ingrid; Reidsma, P.; Bezlepkina, I.; Verburg, R.W.; Abdeladhim, Mohamed Arbi; Bursztyn, Marcel; Chen, Le; Cissé, Youssouf; Feng, Shuyi; Gicheru, Patrick; König, Hannes; Novira, Nina; Purushothaman, Seema; Rodrigues-Filho, Saulo; Sghaïer, Mongi

doi:10.1016/j.landusepol.2012.04.024

Cited by 37 publications

(19 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…Why are the trends more pronounced in certain locations than in others? Addressing such questions could help adjust policies aimed at avoiding undesirable outcomes, but related research is scant (Nesheim et al, 2014). Several studies have analyzed land-use changes in oil palm hotspots using satellite images (Hansen et al, 2009;Koh et al, 2011;Carlson et al, 2012;Margono et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors

2015

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Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. We investigate land-use dynamics in Jambi, Sumatra, one of the hotspots of Indonesia's recent oil palm boom. Data from a structured village survey are used to analyze the role of socioecono mic and policy factors. Oil palm is partly grown on large plantations, but smallholders are also involved significantly. We find that, in spite of significant oil palm expansion, rubber remains the dominant crop. Most of the oil palm growth takes place on previous fallow and rubber land. Oil palm has not been a major driver of deforestation. Much of the forest in Jambi was cleared more than 20 years ago, and rubber was an established cash crop long before the oil palm boom started. However, oil palm growth occurs in locations with ongoing logging activities, so indirect effects on deforestation are likely. The government's transmigration program of the 1980s and 1990s was instrumental for the start and spread of oil palm in Jambi. Some autochthonous villages have adopted oil palm, but adoption started later compared to migrants from Java, and it happens at a slower pace. While the transmigration program benefited many of the participating families, it has contributed to the risk of unequal socioeconomic developments in Jambi. Terms of use: Documents in

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors

2015

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“…This provided major variable sources for the model. Other studies [8,36,46,52,[59][60][61][62][63][64][65] supplied important information for variable selection and pathway determination. When data were unavailable, proxy datasets were identified.…”

Section: Variable Indicators and Proxiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China

Seydehmet

Nurmemet

et al. 2018

Sustainability

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Significant anthropogenic and biophysical changes have caused fluctuations in the soil salinization area of the Keriya Oasis in China. The Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) sustainability framework and Bayesian networks (BNs) were used to integrate information from anthropogenic and natural systems to model the trend of secondary soil salinization. The developed model predicted that light salinization (vegetation coverage of around 15-20%, soil salt 5-10 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term but decelerate slightly in the future, and that farmland salinization will decrease in the near term. This trend is expected to accelerate in the future. Both trends are attributed to decreased water logging, increased groundwater exploitation, and decreased ratio of evaporation/precipitation. In contrast, severe salinization (vegetation coverage of around 2%, soil salt ≥20 g/kg) of the ecotone will increase in the near term. This trend will accelerate in the future because decreased river flow will reduce the flushing of severely salinized soil crust. Anthropogenic factors have negative impacts and natural causes have positive impacts on light salinization of ecotones. In situations involving severe farmland salinization, anthropogenic factors have persistent negative impacts.

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“…Groundwater, an important and reliable water resource for many sectors, is heavily exploited (Romagny et al 2004). Pressures on water resources are increasing through population growth, urbanization, and land-use intensification (Nesheim et al 2014). Water competition is likely to increase in the future, as climate change simulations project decreasing precipitation and increasing temperatures for northern Africa (Niang et al 2014), further challenging water management (Omrani and Burger 2012).…”

Section: The Four Case Studiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa

Reinhardt¹,

Liersch²,

Abdeladhim³

et al. 2018

E&S

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ABSTRACT. Scenarios have become a key tool for supporting sustainability research on regional and global change. In this study we evaluate four regional scenario assessments: first, to explore a number of research challenges related to sustainability science and, second, to contribute to sustainability research in the specific case studies. The four case studies used commonly applied scenario approaches that are (i) a story and simulation approach with stakeholder participation in the Oum Zessar watershed, Tunisia, (ii) a participatory scenario exploration in the Rwenzori region, Uganda, (iii) a model-based prepolicy study in the Inner Niger Delta, Mali, and (iv) a model coupling-based scenario analysis in upper Thukela basin, South Africa. The scenario assessments are evaluated against a set of known challenges in sustainability science, with each challenge represented by two indicators, complemented by a survey carried out on the perception of the scenario assessments within the case study regions. The results show that all types of scenario assessments address many sustainability challenges, but that the more complex ones based on story and simulation and model coupling are the most comprehensive. The study highlights the need to investigate abrupt system changes as well as governmental and political factors as important sources of uncertainty. For an in-depth analysis of these issues, the use of qualitative approaches and an active engagement of local stakeholders are suggested. Studying ecological thresholds for the regional scale is recommended to support research on regional sustainability. The evaluation of the scenario processes and outcomes by local researchers indicates the most transparent scenario assessments as the most useful. Focused, straightforward, yet iterative scenario assessments can be very relevant by contributing information to selected sustainability problems.

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Causal chains, policy trade offs and sustainability: Analysing land (mis)use in seven countries in the South

Cited by 37 publications

References 45 publications

Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors

Oil palm boom and land-use dynamics in Indonesia: The role of policies and socioeconomic factors

Model Prediction of Secondary Soil Salinization in the Keriya Oasis, Northwest China

Systematic evaluation of scenario assessments supporting sustainable integrated natural resources management: evidence from four case studies in Africa

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