Causal dependences between the coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the Tropical Pacific, the North Pacific and the North Atlantic

Abstract

Abstract.The causal dependences between the dynamics of three different coupled ocean-atmosphere basins, The North Atlantic, the These findings shed a new light on the coupling between these three different important regions of the globe. In particular they call for a deep reassessment of the way teleconnections are interpreted, and for a more rigorous way to evaluate causality and dependences between the different components of the climate system.

Causal Links Between Arctic Sea Ice and Its Potential Drivers Based on the Rate of Information Transfer

“…However, the presence of a correlation between one variable and another does not firmly demonstrate a causal influence between these variables. In order to identify such a causal link, causal inference frameworks can be used (Granger, 1969; Krakovska et al., 2018; Liang, 2014; Runge et al., 2019; Sugihara et al., 2012) and have been applied to climate studies (e.g., Deza et al., 2015; Harries & O’Kane, 2021; Kretschmer et al., 2016; Mosedale et al., 2006; Tsonis et al., 2015; Vannitsem & Ekelmans, 2018). The Liang‐Kleeman information flow method (Liang & Kleeman, 2005) is particularly interesting because it allows identifying of the direction and magnitude of the cause‐effect relationships between variables (Liang, 2014, 2021).…”

Changes in Future Synoptic Circulation Patterns: Consequences for Extreme Event Attribution

“…This generates an intrinsic variability on a wide range of spatial and temporal scales which can affect the occurrence and intensity of extreme events. On top of this, the climate system is never in a stationary state: external forcings, both natural (solar activity, volcanic eruptions, orbital parameters) and anthropogenic (greenhouse gases emissions, land use cover changes) change continuously on a wide range of temporal scales (Lucarini et al., 2010; Vannitsem & Ekelmans, 2018). This nonstationarity is difficult to tackle from both statistical and physical perspectives.…”

Testing for Dynamical Dependence: Application to the Surface Mass Balance Over Antarctica

“…Recent advances in dynamical system theories can considerably help in disentangling the influence of one observable on another. One particular approach developed by Sugihara et al (2012) based on analog techniques in a reconstructed phase space has numerous potential applications (e.g., Luo et al, 2015;Tsonis et al, 2015;Vannitsem & Ekelmans, 2018;Ye et al, 2015, Ma et al, 2018, see also Vannitsem and Ghil (2017) for an other analog-based approach. One drawback is the necessity to define an appropriate phase space to reconstruct the attractor of the system.…”