Causes of Increased Compound Temperature and Precipitation Extreme Events in the Arid Region of Northwest China from 1961 to 2100

Abstract

Compound extreme events pose more grave threats to human health, the natural environment, and socioeconomic systems than do individual extreme events. However, the drivers and spatiotemporal change characteristics of compound extreme events under climate transition remain poorly understood, especially in the arid region of Northwest China. This study examined the spatiotemporal change characteristics and driving mechanisms of extreme temperature and precipitation compound events in Northwest China based on data from 86 national meteorological stations and 11 climate models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6. The results indicated that (1) the frequency values of heat extremity–dry (1.60/10a) and heat extremity–heavy precipitation (0.60/10a) events increased from 1961 to 2020, and showed a faster uptrend after 1990 than before. (2) Under four shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios, there is also the likelihood of an upward trend in heat extremity–dry and heat extremity–heavy precipitation events in Northwest China by the end of 21 century, especially under SSP585, with probability values of 1.70/10a and 1.00/10a, respectively. (3) A soil moisture deficit leads to decreased evaporation and increased sensible heat by reduction in the soil–atmosphere exchange; the non-adiabatic heating process leads to a higher frequency of hot days. This land–air interaction feedback mechanism is a significant driver of heat extremity–dry events in Northwest China. (4) In the Northwest China region, the warmer trend surpasses the wetter trend, contributing to increased specific humidity, and the vapor pressure deficit may lead to an increasing frequency of extreme precipitation, consequently increasing heat extremity–heavy precipitation events. These results provide new insights for the understanding of compound extreme events, in order to cope with their risks.