Objective
Post-operative respiratory adverse events (RAEs) are associated with high rates of morbidity and mortality in general surgery, however little is known about these complications in the vascular surgery population, a frail subset with multiple comorbidities. The objective of this study was to describe the contemporary incidence of RAEs in vascular surgery patients, the risk factors for this complication and the overall impact of RAEs on patient outcomes.
Methods
The Vascular Quality Initiative was queried (2003–2014) for patients who underwent endovascular abdominal aortic repair, open abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) repair, thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR), suprainguinal bypass or infrainguinal bypass. A mixed-effects logistic regression model determined the independent risk factors for RAEs. Using a random 85% of the cohort, a risk prediction score for RAEs was created and the score was validated using the remaining 15% of the cohort, comparing the predicted to the actual incidence of RAE and determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The independent risk of in-hospital mortality and discharge to a nursing facility associated with RAEs was determined using a mixed-effects logistic regression to control for baseline patient characteristics, operative variables and other post-operative adverse events.
Results
The cohort consisted of 52,562 patients, with a 5.4% incidence of RAEs. The highest rates of RAEs were seen in current smokers (6.1%), recent acute myocardial infarction (10.1%), symptomatic congestive heart failure (CHF) (9.9%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) requiring oxygen therapy (11.0%), urgent and emergent procedures (6.4% and 25.9%, respectively), open AAA repairs (17.6%), in-situ suprainguinal bypasses (9.68%) and TEVARs (9.6%). The variables included in the risk prediction score were age, body mass index, smoking status, CHF severity, COPD severity, degree of renal insufficiency, ambulatory status, transfer status, urgency and operative type. The predicted compared to the actual RAE incidence were highly correlated, with a correlation coefficient of 0.943 (P<.0001) and a c-statistic=0.818. RAEs had a significantly higher rates of in-hospital mortality (25.4% vs. 1.2%, P<.0001, adjusted OR=5.85, P<.0001) and discharge to a nursing facility (57.8% vs. 19.0%, P<.0001, adjusted OR=3.14, P<.0001).
Conclusions
RAEs are frequent and one of the strongest risk factors for in-hospital mortality and inability to be discharged home. Our risk prediction score accurately stratifies patients based on key demographics, comorbidities, presentation, and operative type that can be used to guide patient counseling, preoperative optimization, and post-operative management. Furthermore, it may be useful in developing quality benchmarks for RAE following major vascular surgery.