Background
In Nepal, since 2004, 19,388 people living with HIV (PLHIV) have been
enrolled on antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to
measure mortality rate and to identify predictors of mortality in adult (≥15
years) PLHIV who initiated ART between 2004 and 2013 in five large ART
centers of Nepal.
Methods
This retrospective cohort study of 3,799 (60.5% male) adult PLHIV uses
secondary data collected from standard ART registers. Time from ART
initiation (baseline) to death or censoring (loss to follow-up or December
31, 2013) was assessed. Mortality rates per 100 person-years were
calculated. Kaplan-Meier models were used to estimate the probability of
mortality over time. Predictors of mortality were determined using
Cox-regression models.
Results
The overall mortality rate was 6.98 (95% CI: 6.46–7.54) per 100 person-years,
4.11 (95% CI: 3.53–4.79) in females and 9.14 (95% CI: 8.36–9.99) in males.
Mortality rates were higher in early months after ART initiation,
particularly in the first three months. Baseline predictors of mortality
were ART center, male gender (adjusted HR = 2.08, 95% CI: 1.69–2.57),
residence outside the ART district (AHR = 1.45, 95% CI:1.19–1.76), World
Health Organization clinical stage III (AHR = 1.67, 95% CI: 1.13–2.46) and
IV (AHR = 2.21, 95% CI: 1.45–3.36), bedridden <50% time in the last month
(AHR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.52–2.41), bedridden >50% time in the last month
(AHR = 3.82, 95% CI: 2.95–4.94), lower bodyweight/kg (AHR = 1.04, 95% CI:
1.03–1.05), CD4 count <150 cell/mm
3
(AHR = 2.14, 95% CI:
1.05–4.34) and treatment not switched to second-line regimen (AHR = 3.05,
95% CI: 1.35–6.90).
Conclusions
Mortality rates were higher soon after ART initiation, particularly in males
and gradually decreased over time. Poor baseline clinical characteristics
were significantly associated with higher mortality. Increased ART coverage
with decentralization of sites to lower levels including community
dispensing, differentiated and improved service delivery and initiation of
ART at a less advanced disease stage may reduce early mortality.