CBO Updated Forecasts: Do a Few Months Matter?

Douglas, James W.; Raudla, Ringa

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-18195-6_7

Cited by 1 publication

(1 citation statement)

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“…CBO's projections often serve a starting point for policy discussions and for comparing alternative policy scenarios. Members of Congress rely on CBO's projections to analyze the fiscal condition of the government and set agendas for policy debates (Douglas & Raudla, 2019). As highlighted by Coppess et al (2017) and Coppess et al (2018), CBO projections and the ensuant political debates likely influence the reauthorization of the Farm Bill.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

An evaluation of Congressional Budget Office's baseline projections of USDA mandatory farm and nutrition programs

Regmi,

Kuethe

2024

Applied Eco Perspectives Pol

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The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections of USDA's mandatory farm and nutrition program outlays are important in shaping US agricultural policy. Using CBO projections and observed outcomes from 1985 through 2020, we examine the degree to which projections of farm, supplemental nutrition assistance program (SNAP), and child nutrition program outlays are unbiased, efficient, and informative. We find that projections for farm and child nutrition program outlays are unbiased, SNAP outlays are unbiased at short‐term but are downward biased beyond a 3‐year horizon. All three series of projections are inefficient. SNAP and child nutrition program outlay projections are informative up to a 5‐year horizon, but the farm program outlay projections are informative for only a 1‐year horizon. Disaggregated farm program data since 2008 suggests that the uninformativeness principally stems from conservation and commodity program projections. The findings may be valuable to CBO, as they continue to improve projections, and to projection users, in adjusting their expectations.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%