Ceasefires and Civilian Protection Monitoring in Myanmar

Abstract

Civilian ceasefire and civilian protection monitoring are often seen as innovative peacekeeping and protection mechanisms in conflict zones difficult to access for international actors. However, the literature on civilian monitoring and its impact is sparse. In many conflicts, civilians organize to protect themselves. Research into civilian agency and protection has shown that civilian capacity to self-protect and conflict conditions determine whether protective civilian agency can be effective. We analyze whether civilian protection monitoring can positively impact the protection of civilians, focusing on Myanmar, where donors have funded civilian ceasefire monitoring efforts that are inclusive of a strong civilian protection component. We argue that despite failed ceasefires in Myanmar, the nurturing of civilian monitoring networks, that is, supporting civilian capacity, had a positive—albeit limited—impact on civilian protection. Monitors adapted knowledge from international ceasefire monitoring trainings to their reality on the ground and implemented civilian protection monitoring. Yet, conflict conditions seriously limited protection monitoring and posed grave security challenges to monitors and communities. We conclude that in conflict situations where armed actors show little sensitivity to civilian preferences and commitment to respecting human rights, the need for civilian protection is high while the protective potential of civilian monitoring is limited as long as armed groups’ incentives to better protect civilians remain weak.

Ceasefire monitoring under fire: TheOSCE, technology, and the 2022 war in Ukraine

“…The creation of novel information by ceasefire monitors may not in itself deter non‐compliance (Clayton et al, 2019), although much may depend on the quality of the implementation of monitoring (Kolås, 2011; Verjee, 2019b). From Myanmar to Nepal, from South Sudan to Yemen, scholars have debated the significant challenges faced by monitors in recent years, and their uneven performance under difficult circumstances, some of which were self‐constructed (Krause & Kamler, 2022; Palik, 2021; Pinaud, 2021; Verjee, 2019a). This Policy Insight employs a process‐orientated conceptual framework to discuss the challenges faced by the international ceasefire monitoring mission in Ukraine.…”