Censored Regression for Modelling Small Arms Trade Volumes and Its ‘Forensic’ Use for Exploring Unreported Trades

Abstract

In this paper, we use a censored regression model to investigate data on the international trade of small arms and ammunition provided by the Norwegian Initiative on Small Arms Transfers. Taking a network‐based view on the transfers, we do not only rely on exogenous covariates but also estimate endogenous network effects. We apply a spatial autocorrelation gravity model with multiple weight matrices. The likelihood is maximized employing the Monte Carlo expectation maximization algorithm. Our approach reveals strong and stable endogenous network effects. Furthermore, we find evidence for a substantial path dependence as well as a close connection between exports of civilian and military small arms. The model is then used in a ‘forensic’ manner to analyse latent network structures and thereby to identify countries with higher or lower tendency to export or import than reflected in the data. The approach is also validated using a simulation study.

Arming for conflict, arming for peace? How small arms imports affect intrastate conflict risk

“…However, the effect is not significant in Suzuki (2007) and negative but also not significant in Durch (2000). In contrast to the repression literature (Blanton, 1999; Brender and Pfaff, 2018; de Soysa et al, 2010), small arms have not played a role in research on civil conflict outbreaks so far: only Craft and Smaldone (2002) and Magesan and Swee (2018) even include small arms in their analyses, but lumped together with major weapons, using data from the World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers (WMEAT) database and on US Direct Commercial Sales (DCS), respectively.…”

“…The few studies that analyze the effects of arms imports on civil conflict onset do not provide conclusive evidence on specific arms types like small arms, as they differ in scope, methods, data used and results. While Craft (1999) and Craft and Smaldone (2002) use both inter- and intrastate conflict onsets combined as a single dependent variable, Durch (2000), Suzuki (2007), Magesan and Swee (2018) and Pamp et al (2018) focus explicitly on intrastate conflicts. Craft (1999), Craft and Smaldone (2002), Magesan and Swee (2018) and Pamp et al (2018) find statistically significant positive effects of arms imports on conflict risk.…”

“…While Craft (1999) and Craft and Smaldone (2002) use both inter- and intrastate conflict onsets combined as a single dependent variable, Durch (2000), Suzuki (2007), Magesan and Swee (2018) and Pamp et al (2018) focus explicitly on intrastate conflicts. Craft (1999), Craft and Smaldone (2002), Magesan and Swee (2018) and Pamp et al (2018) find statistically significant positive effects of arms imports on conflict risk. However, the effect is not significant in Suzuki (2007) and negative but also not significant in Durch (2000).…”

“…Actually, only Pamp et al (2018) and Magesan and Swee (2018) use a wide-ranging sample of both developing and developed countries and apply advanced econometric techniques to not only establish correlations but provide causal findings. Pamp et al (2018) cover 137 countries over the time 1953–2013.…”

“…Therefore, evaluating the effects of arms imports is of paramount relevance. These questions have, however, only been investigated in the literature for the case of major conventional weapon (MCW) imports (Craft, 1999; Suzuki, 2007; Pamp et al, 2018) or without discerning between major weapons and small arms (Craft and Smaldone, 2002; Magesan and Swee, 2018).…”