Censoring the Press: A Barometer of Government Tolerance for Anti-regime Dissent under Authoritarian Rule

Abstract

This paper proposes that dissident leaders aiming to build mass opposition movements follow the mainstream press to help them gauge government tolerance for anti-government mass actions in repressive authoritarian regimes. Under conditions of censorship, media–state interactions serve as a barometer of the government's disposition toward and capacity to impede public displays of dissent. Observing trends in coverage and the government's reaction to this coverage helps activist leaders assess when it should be safest to plan anti-government mass actions, such as demonstrations, marches, or strikes. Using original data derived from coding content from the Brazilian newspaper Folha de São Paulo over the period of 1974–1982, I test whether opposition mass actions followed trends in taboo content and government treatment of the press during the period of political liberalization of Brazil's military regime.

A Double-Edge Sword? Mass Media and Nonviolent Dissent in Autocracies

“…Several formal models suggest that media independence facilitates dissent by spreading information, although it may also increase the risk of repression (e.g., Kim, Whitten-Woodring, and James 2015; Whitten-Woodring and James 2012). Stein (2016a) shows how the Folha de Sao Paulo newspaper in Brazil provided information that helped opposition actors mobilize against the military regime. These studies offer many valuable insights, but comparative empirical research on the mass media–dissent nexus remains scant.…”

Media Freedom and Protest Events in the Global South*

“…One explanation is that most East Germans did not use West German media for political purposes. Meanwhile, the case study from Brazil unveils that when the national news media touches upon taboo stories, implying a regime's tendency to liberate the country, massive political oppositions are more likely to appear (Stein, ). Another study indicates that media watchdogging confirmed Tunisians’ perception about a weak government, triggering nationwide protests (Kim, Whitten‐Woodring, and James, ).…”

“…Ten years before the ending of military rule in Brazil, taboo topics began to surface in national newspapers. Subsequently, civil society was rejuvenated and mass protests followed, ultimately leading to political liberalization (Stein, ). In Taiwan, mass student movements occurred after the ruling party Kuomintang lifted the ban on newspaper publications in the late 1980s (Chen, ).…”

Are ICTs Democratizing Dictatorships? New Media and Mass Mobilization*

“…Although most people agree that the growth of ICTs has greatly influenced society and politics, little agreement exists on the mechanism by which ICT diffusion effects change or the nature of such change. First, as more people gain access to ICTs, they improve their access to information—even where censored—which allows them to better evaluate the political regime that rules over them (Stein, ). As the number of sources increases and the news cycle develops instantaneously, it becomes increasingly difficult for governments to keep pace with monitoring and censoring alternative information sources.…”