Centennial Memory of the Arctic Ocean for Future Arctic Climate Recovery in Response to a Carbon Dioxide Removal

Oh, Ji‐Hoon; An, Soon‐Il; Shin, Jongsoo; Kug, Jong‐Seong

doi:10.1029/2022ef002804

Cited by 18 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 63 publications

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“…Our findings of stronger cold AA may have implications for the effects of various CO 2 removal or net-zero emissions scenarios (Oh et al 2022), instigated by the 2015 Paris Agreement with a pursuit to limit the global temperature increase to 1.5 • C above PI levels, on Arctic climate change. To achieve this objective, net negative CO 2 emissions are demanded (Hoegh-Guldberg et al 2018), so a stronger cold AA signature could emerge.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations

Zhou,

Liang,

Mitevski

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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Arctic amplification (AA), referring to the phenomenon of amplified warming in the Arctic compared to the warming in the rest of the globe, is generally attributed to the increasing concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere. However, little attention has been paid to the mechanisms and quantitative variations of AA under decreasing levels of CO2, when cooling where the Arctic region is considerably larger than over the rest of the planet. Analyzing climate model experiments forced with a wide range of CO2 concentrations (from 1/8× to 8×CO2, with respect to preindustrial levels), we show that AA indeed occurs under decreasing CO2 concentrations, and it is stronger than AA under increasing CO2 concentrations. Feedback analysis reveals that the Planck, lapse-rate, and albedo feedbacks are the main contributors to producing AAs forced by CO2 increase and decrease, but the stronger Planck and lapse-rate feedbacks associated with decreasing CO2 level give rise to stronger AA. We further find that the increasing CO2 concentrations delay the peak month of AA from November to December or January, depending on the forcing strength. In contrast, decreasing CO2 levels cannot shift the peak of AA earlier than October, as a consequence of the maximum sea-ice increase in September which is independent of forcing strength. Such seasonality changes are also presented in the lapse-rate feedback, but do not appear in other feedbacks nor in atmospheric and oceanic heat transport processes. Our results highlight the strongly asymmetric responses of AA, as evidenced by the different changes in its intensity and seasonality, to the increasing and decreasing CO2 concentrations. These findings have significant implications for understanding how carbon removal could impact the Arctic climate, ecosystems, and socio-economic activities.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations

Zhou,

Liang,

Mitevski

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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“…This is mainly due to the slow response time of key Earth system components. Surface air temperature and precipitation changes appear largely reversible at the global scale following a decline in atmospheric CO 2 , but they exhibit irreversibility at regional scale on a timescale of centuries, posing a greater risk to human and natural systems in regions of irreversibility (Kim et al, 2022; Oh et al, 2022). In the long term, irreversible changes include sea-level rise from ocean thermal expansion and melting of ice sheets and glaciers, sea-ice loss, changes in the deep sea environment (e.g.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Bustamante,

Roy,

Ospina

et al. 2023

Glob. Sustain.

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Non-technical summary. We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability and implications of overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges for scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding the future contribution of natural carbon sinks, (5) intertwinedness of the crises of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility in the face of climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. Technical summary. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides the scientific foundation for international climate negotiations and constitutes an unmatched resource for researchers. However, the assessment cycles take multiple years. As a contribution to cross-and interdisciplinary understanding of climate change across diverse research communities, we have streamlined an annual process to identify and synthesize significant research advances. We collected input from experts on various fields using an online questionnaire and prioritized a set of 10 key research insights with high policy relevance. This year, we focus on: (1) the looming overshoot of the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) the urgency of fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges to scale-up carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future natural carbon sinks, (5) the need for joint governance of biodiversity loss and climate change, (6) advances in understanding compound events, (7) accelerated mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility amidst climate risks, (9) adaptation justice, and (10) just transitions in food systems. We present a succinct account of these insights, reflect on their policy implications, and offer an integrated set of policy-relevant messages. This science synthesis and science communication effort is also the basis for a policy report contributing to elevate climate science every year in time for the United Nations Climate Change Conference. Social media summary. We highlight recent and policy-relevant advances in climate change researchwith input from more than 200 experts.

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“…Previous studies have investigated the reversibility of the climate system, identified hysteresis behavior, and explored associated dynamical processes; the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) [9][10][11] , El Niño-Southern Oscillation 12 , Indian Ocean Dipole 13 , Intertropical Convergence Zone 14 , monsoon 15,16 , carbon uptake 17,18 , drought area 18 , extreme precipitation 19,20 , global heat transport 21 , global mean surface temperature 17,[22][23][24] , and regional precipitation 13,22,23,25 . Among these climate systems, understanding the irreversible and hysteresis behavior of the hydrological cycle is particularly crucial for climate adaptation and mitigation policies, as its changes can have significant impacts on water availability, agriculture, and ecosystems.…”

Section: Mainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Negative CO2 emissions mitigate extremes of the terrestrial hydrological cycle via a vegetation physiological feedback

Kug

Shin

Park

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Negative carbon emissions are certainly executed to mitigate global warming, including minimizing the detrimental effects of weather extremes in the future. Here we show that successful implementation of negative emissions significantly increases terrestrial precipitation. Although CO2 concentrations are reduced by negative emissions, total terrestrial precipitation exceeds ~ 70% more than for periods of the highest CO2 concentrations, when the atmosphere retains more moisture due to increased air temperatures. The physiological processes of terrestrial vegetation are found to play a critical role in this enhanced terrestrial precipitation and hydrological cycle. We found stomatal feedback-enhanced transpiration leads to increases in precipitation, which in turn increases vegetation growth and resultant transpiration, suggesting positive feedback in the hydrological cycle. Furthermore, despite the increase in total precipitation over land, the occurrences of extreme heavy rainfall events and droughts are significantly reduced globally, implying improved water availability and reduced damages from hydrological extremes in the negative emissions scenario.

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Centennial Memory of the Arctic Ocean for Future Arctic Climate Recovery in Response to a Carbon Dioxide Removal

Cited by 18 publications

References 63 publications

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Negative CO2 emissions mitigate extremes of the terrestrial hydrological cycle via a vegetation physiological feedback

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Centennial Memory of the Arctic Ocean for Future Arctic Climate Recovery in Response to a Carbon Dioxide Removal

Cited by 18 publications

References 63 publications

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO2 concentrations

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO2 concentrations

Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Negative CO2 emissions mitigate extremes of the terrestrial hydrological cycle via a vegetation physiological feedback

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Product

Resources

About

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations

Stronger Arctic amplification produced by decreasing, not increasing, CO₂ concentrations