Central Asian wild tulip conservation requires a regional approach, especially in the face of climate change

Abstract

Tulips (Tulipa spp.) are one of the most widely appreciated plants worldwide, nevertheless species taxonomy and biogeography are often poorly understood. Most wild tulips inhabit the mountains of Central Asia, a recognised biodiversity hotspot, and a centre of tulip diversity. Despite the presence of several country-level endemic Tulipa species, most taxa span the borders of several nations. With no globally Red Listed tulip taxa from this region national level conservation assessments are an important resource. Nonetheless, threats posed to tulips are still inadequately understood, especially climate change, and given the trans-national nature of most species, distributional information is restricted and often misleading. Here we collate 330 species records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility with 85 newly collected records, to undertake species distribution modelling (MaxEnt) for ten native Central Asian species. This work showed that regional level models provide a much more comprehensive understanding of species’ extinction risks, proportions of habitat in different countries, and limitations in protected area coverage. Furthermore, our climate modelling, the first of its kind for tulips, suggests that climate change will have a significant negative impact on the range size of all species; including those that are currently widespread. We therefore add climate change to the list of threats affecting tulip populations in Central Asia, which already includes livestock overgrazing, urbanisation, wild collection, and mining. Overall, our work shows that although national information is important, a regional approach is crucial not just for tulip conservation efforts, but likely for Central Asian plant conservation in general.

A phylogenetic analysis of the wild Tulipa species (Liliaceae) of Kosovo based on plastid and nuclear DNA sequence

“…Further analyses with more extensive sampling and additional genetic markers will be necessary for a better understanding of the natural variability within the taxa of the scardica complex, but for now our study provides the most comprehensive genetic understanding of the complex diversity of tulips growing in and around Kosovo. This understanding will not only be crucial for taxonomic stability and future research, but also for identifying conservation priorities, especially given that threats to wild tulips are likely to increase in the near future 45 …”

“…This understanding will not only be crucial for taxonomic stability and future research, but also for identifying conservation priorities, especially given that threats to wild tulips are likely to increase in the near future. 45…”

Important plant areas (IPAs) in the Fergana Valley (Central Asia): The Bozbu-Too-Ungortepa massif

“…This is also an actuality because many cases focus on country-level distributions. Poor representation is a common problem for Central Asian species (Wilson et al 2021), and international evaluation is rare due to the lack of close cooperation between neighboring countries. species reported from the foothills or low mountain belt of the Chatkal range.…”

“…The situation is even worse for the individual regions because dozens of botanical-geographic regions do not have flora lists pertaining to 50-60 years ago. Poor representation is a common problem for Central Asian species, with data often lacking (Wilson et al 2021). However, many taxonomy, geobotany, and plant ecology studies were carried out (Tojibaev et al 2020).…”

“…However, further efforts are needed to document the presence of species in many protected areas across the region. According toWilson et al (2021), climate-changing models using T. ferganica and T. korolkowii…”