Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?

Ehrmann, Michael; Haan, Jakob de; Jansen, David‐Jan

doi:10.2139/ssrn.4099997

Cited by 6 publications

(4 citation statements)

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“…Furthermore, forward-guiding its future path through the newspapers, etc., for the monetary authority is quite essential for the market participants and the public to understand their economic future. It is convenient for the policymakers to operate their policy by clarifying their policy objectives again (e.g., Blinder et al, 2024).…”

Section: Which Is the Correct Policy Tool Nominal Interest Rate Or Qu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress

Masuda

2024

Preprint

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We introduce the quantity theory of money into the Harrod–Balassa–Samuelson effect model. Our policy rule specifies the impossibility of perfect exchange rate stability with monetary policy, as Friedman (1953) suggests. We discover the importance of inflation to technological progress, while the rent-seeking behaviors in firms foster their productivity slowdowns and disinflations. Their forward-looking behaviors, like animal spirit (Keynes, 1936/1997), control outputs under the marginal productivity hypothesis with the Cobb-Douglus production function. Baumol’s (1959) sales revenue maximization hypothesis explains full employment and deflations but breaks the marginal productivity hypothesis. We briefly argue the downward stickiness of nominal wages (incomes).

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Section: Which Is the Correct Policy Tool Nominal Interest Rate Or Qu...mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress

Masuda

2024

Preprint

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“…. Because We All Are" or the literature survey by Blinder et al (2023). 18 See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UqDvv-1X3ms.…”

Section: E N D N O T E Smentioning

confidence: 99%

Consumers' macroeconomic expectations

Dräger,

Lamla

2023

Journal of Economic Surveys

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After the financial crisis of 2008, central banks around the world have increased their communication efforts to reach consumers, with the aim of both guiding and anchoring their inflation expectations. For the expectations channel of monetary policy to work as intended, central banks need a thorough understanding of the formation process of expectations by the general public and of the relationship between expectations and economic choices. This warrants reliable and detailed data on consumers' expectations of macroeconomic variables such as inflation or interest rates. We, thus, survey the available survey data and issues regarding the measurement of macroeconomic expectations. Furthermore, we discuss the research frontier on important aspects of the expectations channel: We evaluate the evidence on whether expectations are formed consistently with standard macroeconomic relationships, discuss the insights with respect to the anchoring of inflation expectations, explore the role of narratives and preferences and lastly, we survey the research on causal effects of central bank communication on expectations and economic choices.

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“…Owing to its simple structure, LDA can be easily applied as a dimension reduction tool and has been used with increasing frequency in the economics literature. 10 However, LDA (and unsupervised topic models, more generally) does not easily lend itself to our task because the objective here is to identify text related to a very specific, and relatively new, topic.…”

Section: Existing Approaches For "Topic Identification"mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Examples include cases in which the topic of interest does not match with the factor structure of unsupervised methods or when there is no training data available 9 Grimmer and Stewart (2013) and Gentzkow, Kelly and Taddy (2019) provide surveys of this literature. 10 11 There are a variety of extensions that relax the strong assumptions of LDA, such as the dynamic topic model (Blei and Lafferty, 2006), the correlated topic model (Blei and Lafferty, 2005), or the structural topic model (Roberts, et al, 2013). While these methods may help with our specific application, they all are still limited by the fact that they are unsupervised.…”

Section: Existing Approaches For "Topic Identification"mentioning

confidence: 99%

Central Bank Communication about Climate Change

Arseneau

Osada

2023

Preprint

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This paper applies natural language processing to a large corpus of central bank speeches to identify those related to climate change. We analyze these speeches to better understand how central banks communicate about climate change. By all accounts, communication about climate change has accelerated sharply in recent years. The breadth of topics covered is wide, ranging from the impact of climate change on the economy to financial innovation, sustainable finance, monetary policy, and the central bank mandate. Financial stability concerns are touched upon, but macroprudential policy is rarely mentioned. Direct central bank action largely revolves around identifying and monitoring potential risks to the financial system. Finally, we find that central banks tend to use speculative language more frequently when talking about climate change relative to other topics. JEL Classifications: E58; E61; Q54

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Central Bank Communication with the General Public: Promise or False Hope?

Cited by 6 publications

References 101 publications

The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress

The Special Theory of Employment, Exchange Rate, and Money With the Focus on Inflation and Technological Progress

Consumers' macroeconomic expectations

Central Bank Communication about Climate Change

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