Central Equatorial Pacific Warming and Freshening in the Twentieth Century: Insights From a Coral Ensemble Approach

Hitt, N. T.; Sayani, H. R.; Atwood, Alyssa R.; Grothe, Pamela R.; Maupin, C. R.; O'Connor, Gemma; Walter, Rachel M.; Gebregiorgis, Daniel; Hardt, Madeleine E.; Lü, Yanbin; Cheng, Hai; Edwards, R. Lawrence; Cobb, Kim M.

doi:10.1029/2021gl094051

Cited by 3 publications

(8 citation statements)

References 68 publications

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“…To quantify the relative contributions of SST and seawater δ 18 O to coral δ 18 O during the 2015/16 El Niño event, we calculate the expected temperature contribution to coral δ 18 O using the empirical relationship of −0.2‰ °C−1 (Epstein et al, 1951), and then subtract the temperature contribution from coral δ 18 O to isolate seawater δ 18 O gray) and 3-month peak (red) periods used to calculate SST and coral δ 18 O anomalies for each El Niño event. Coral δ 18 O records shown are the "X16" corals (this study), "X12-3" and "X12-6" (Grothe et al, 2020), "X12-FS" fossil corals and "X12-D6-1" fossil coral (Hitt et al, 2021), "Nurhati-09" (Nurhati et al, 2009), and "Evans-99" (Evans et al, 1999). Coral records are plotted with offsets applied, as shown in Tables S1 and S2 changes (Cahyarini et al, 2008;Ren et al, 2003, Text S5 in the Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Sst and Hydrological Contributions To Coral δ 18 Omentioning

confidence: 55%

“…All data and metadata presented here are archived at NCDC (https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo-search/study/28291) and have registered International Geo Sample Numbers IECXI000B, IECXI000C, IECXI000D, IECXI000E, IECXI000F, and IECXI000G (i.e., http://igsn.org/IECXI000B). We use additional coral data from Hitt et al., 2021, Grothe et al., 2020, Nurhati et al., 2009, and Evans et al., 1999, and additional in situ logger data from Claar et al., 2019. The ERSSTv5 and OISSTv2 datasets can be found at NOAA (https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/), and the HadISSTv1.1 data set can be found at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/.…”

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Horizontal bars at the top of each panel show the 2-year baseline (gray) and 3-month peak (red) periods used to calculate SST and coral δ 18 O anomalies for each El Niño event. Coral δ 18 O records shown are the "X16" corals (this study), "X12-3" and "X12-6"(Grothe et al, 2020), "X12-FS" fossil corals and "X12-D6-1" fossil coral(Hitt et al, 2021), "Nurhati-09"(Nurhati et al, 2009), and "Evans-99"(Evans et al, 1999). Coral records are plotted with offsets applied, as shown in TablesS1 and S2in the Supporting Information S1.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

O'Connor

Cobb

Sayani

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability, but its response to greenhouse warming remains highly uncertain (Bellenger et al., 2014;Ng et al., 2021;Stevenson, 2012). Although projections of ENSO-related sea surface temperature (SST) variability differ across climate models, simulations forced with projected anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions generally agree on an increase in the hydrological extremes associated with ENSO (

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Section: Sst and Hydrological Contributions To Coral δ 18 Omentioning

confidence: 55%

Section: Data Availability Statementmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

O'Connor

Cobb

Sayani

et al. 2021

Geophysical Research Letters

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“…We employ an extensive collection of published coral  18 O and  13 C records from Kiritimati (2 o N, 157 o W) in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean in this study (Cobb et al, 2013;Evans et al, 1999;Grothe et al, 2020;Hitt et al, 2022). The records are divided into two categories based on age.…”

Section: Data Sourcesmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Coral Diagenesis and Physiology Framework for Improving Coral δ18O Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Rodriguez,

Atwood,

Cobb

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Reef-building corals provide seasonally resolved records of past climate variability from the ocean via variations in their oxygen isotope composition (δ18O). However, a variety of non-climatic factors can influence coral δ18O including processes associated with coral biomineralization and post-depositional alteration of the coral skeleton, which add uncertainty to coral based paleoclimate reconstructions. These uncertainties are especially large in mean climate reconstructions developed from coral δ18O values due to the large variability that exists in mean skeletal δ18O signatures. We present a novel framework to minimize this uncertainty in mean coral δ18O records based on a regression model that uses four commonly measured properties in coral skeletons and associated coral δ18O records. We test the ability of the model to reduce noise in a Holocene climate reconstruction comprised of 37 coral δ18O records from Kiritimati in the equatorial Pacific. Up to 43% of the variance in the detrended Holocene dataset is accounted for by a combination of four predictors: (1) mm-scale variability in a coral δ18O record, (2) the physical extent of diagenetic alteration, (3) coral extension rate, and (4) the mean coral δ13C value. Once these non-climatic artifacts are removed from the reconstruction, the weighted variance of the Holocene dataset is reduced by 46% and the uncertainty in the trend of coral δ18O over time is reduced by 26%. These results have important implications for the climate interpretation of this Holocene data set. This framework has the potential to improve other paleoclimate records based on ensembles of coral δ18O records.

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“…However, Central Pacific El Niños do not appear to have become more intense in the way that Eastern Pacific El Niños have (Freund et al 2019, Grothe et al 2020. Beyond changes in interannual variability, ensembles of coral δ 18 O records can also capture longer climate trends, such as 20th century warming and freshening trends in the tropical Pacific (Hitt et al 2022).…”

Section: Coralsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

Dee

Bailey

Conroy

et al. 2023

Environ. Res.: Climate

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The hydrologic cycle is a fundamental component of the climate system with critical societal and ecological relevance. Yet gaps persist in our understanding of water fluxes and their response to increased greenhouse gas forcing. The stable isotope ratios of oxygen and hydrogen in water provide a unique opportunity to evaluate hydrological processes and investigate their role in the variability of the climate system and its sensitivity to change. Water isotopes also form the basis of many paleoclimate proxies in a variety of archives, including ice cores, lake and marine sediments, corals, and speleothems. These records hold most of the available information about past hydrologic variability prior to instrumental observations. Water isotopes thus provide a ‘common currency’ that links paleoclimate archives to modern observations, allowing us to evaluate hydrologic processes and their effects on climate variability on a wide range of time and length scales. Building on previous literature summarizing advancements in water isotopic measurements and modeling and describe water isotopic applications for understanding hydrological processes, this topical review reflects on new insights about climate variability from isotopic studies. Our intention is to highlight new work and opportunities to enhance our understanding and predictive skill, rather than be exhaustive. We offer a set of recommendations to advance observational and model-based tools for climate research, and highlight opportunities to better constrain climate sensitivity and identify anthropogenically-driven hydrologic changes within the inherently noisy background of natural climate variability.

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Central Equatorial Pacific Warming and Freshening in the Twentieth Century: Insights From a Coral Ensemble Approach

Cited by 3 publications

References 68 publications

Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

Coral Oxygen Isotopic Records Capture the 2015/2016 El Niño Event in the Central Equatorial Pacific

A Coral Diagenesis and Physiology Framework for Improving Coral δ18O Paleoclimate Reconstructions

Water isotopes, climate variability, and the hydrological cycle: recent advances and new frontiers

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