Central Jakarta Rainfall Intensity Forecast using Single Exponential Smoothing

Abstract

Rainfall is the precipitation amount that is falling from clouds. In extreme conditions, rainfall could arise many problems. It is the leading cause of landslides and flood disasters. In D.K.I. Jakarta, the capital city of Indonesia, rainfall intensity plays a very vital role since it could easily be puddled and caused floods in many areas. Therefore, in this study, we try to make a rainfall intensity prediction in Central Jakarta using a very popular forecasting method, i.e., the Single Exponential Smoothing (SES). Based on the experiments conducted using Phatsa, it can be concluded that the SES method has been successfully used to predict rainfall intensity. However, it cannot give a very good prediction result due to its high forecast error values.

Benchmark of Holt-Winters and SARIMA Methods in Predicting Jakarta Climate

“…The results of the observed errors are also used to determine whichcan be used to more accurately forecast Jakarta's cli-mate. According to similar previous research by Hansun and Kristanda [7], simply using exponential smoothing is not suitable to forecast Jakarta rainfall rate. Therefore, this study also hopes to find another more suitable method to forecast the Jakarta rainfall rate.…”

Application of the Single Exponential Smoothing Method For Flood Disaster Prediction

“…SES actually is a unique type of Moving Average (MA) that uses the exponential function in forming the weighting factors. This forecasting method focuses on exponentially decreasing priority on older observable objects (Hansun & Kristanda, 2019). In exponential smoothing or Single Exponential Smoothing there are one or more smoothing parameters that are specified explicitly, and these results determine the weight assigned to the observed value (Anjani et al, 2020).…”