Century scale climate change in the central highlands of Sri Lanka

Silva, J De; Sonnadara, D. U. J.

doi:10.1007/s12040-015-0652-z

Cited by 14 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 17 publications

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“…4). Zone 4 generally represents a wet period with a weakening in rainfall intensity from 754 cal a bp towards the present that is validated by instrumental records for the last century obtained from the western slopes of the highlands (de Silva and Sonnadara, 2016).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Reconstruction of the Late Holocene climate and environmental history from North Bolgoda Lake, Sri Lanka, using lipid biomarkers and pollen records

Gayantha

Routh

Anupama

et al. 2020

J Quaternary Science

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The catastrophic impact and unpredictability of the Indian Ocean Monsoon (IOM) over South Asia are evident from devastating floods, mudslides and droughts in one of the most densely populated regions of the globe. However, our understanding as to how the IOM has varied in the past, as well as its impact on local environments, remains limited. This is particularly the case for Sri Lanka, where erosional landscapes have limited the availability of well-stratified, high-resolution terrestrial archives. Here, we present novel data from an undisturbed sediment core retrieved from the coastal Bolgoda Lake. This includes the presentation of a revised Late Holocene age model as well as an innovative combination of pollen, source-specific biomarkers, and compound-specific stable carbon isotopes of n-alkanes to reconstruct the shifts in precipitation, salinity and vegetation cover. Our record documents variable climate between 3000 years and the present, with arid conditions c. 2334 and 2067 cal a BP. This extreme dry period was preceded and followed by more wet conditions. The high-resolution palaeoenvironmental reconstruction fills a major gap in our knowledge on the ramifications of IOM shifts across South Asia and provides insights during a time of major redistribution of dense human settlements across Sri Lanka.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 57%

Reconstruction of the Late Holocene climate and environmental history from North Bolgoda Lake, Sri Lanka, using lipid biomarkers and pollen records

Gayantha

Routh

Anupama

et al. 2020

J Quaternary Science

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“…In contrast, the positive relationship between rainfall and labour demand during the March–April inter‐monsoon period can be explained by the relatively low rainfall during this period occurring mainly in the evenings, while the majority of days are sunny (Ranatunge et al . ; De Silva and Sonnadara ). This helps to increase tea production without discouraging worker attendance.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 97%

“…; Wijeratne et al . ; De Silva and Sonnadara ) and reflects the likely impacts of Sri Lanka's monsoonal rainfall pattern, rainfall volume and rainfall distribution on tea production and thus profits. In addition, we would expect seasonal rainfall patterns to have an effect on labour demand, either directly or indirectly via their impact on tea leaf production.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Approximately 80 per cent of Sri Lanka's rainfall is essentially governed by two main monsoon patterns: the south‐west (SW) monsoon from May to September; and the north‐east (NE) monsoon from December to February. Inter‐monsoonal rains occur during the transition between the main monsoons due to convectional activity (De Silva and Sonnadara ). The first and second inter‐monsoons occur from March to April and October to November, respectively.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

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The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka

Gunathilaka

Smart

Fleming

et al. 2018

Aus J Agri & Res Econ

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Limited opportunities for crop switching and lengthy preharvesting periods make the plantation sector particularly vulnerable to climate change. Surprisingly, however, the economic consequences of climate change on plantation crops are seldom analysed. Drawing on a unique primary panel data set from a representative cross section of 35 tea estates in Sri Lanka over the period 2002-2014, this study implements a structural model of estate profit maximisation to estimate the elasticity of labour demand with respect to different components of weather. Results indicate a negative relationship between labour demand and rainfall in the south-west monsoon, the north-east monsoon and the second inter-monsoon. A positive relationship is found between labour demand and rainfall in the first inter-monsoon. Overall, predicted changes in rainfall by 2050 are anticipated to reduce labour demand by approximately 1,175,000 person-days per year across Sri Lanka's tea plantation sector. This is likely to have considerable social and welfare implications, particularly for the Indian Tamil women who comprise the majority of the sector's workforce.

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“…In this context, Mann-Kendall trend (Mann, 1945, Kendall, 1962 test can be applied to assess long term upward or downward trends in observed climatic variables. This test is widely applied to statistically detect the long-term trend in meteorological time series (Brunetti et al, 2000, Silva andSonnadara, 2016). This is a non-parametric and rank-based test, and requiring no assumptions for distributional properties (Kendall, 1962, Mann, 1945.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Weather variability and coconut production in Sri Lanka: state-contingent analysis

Jayalath¹

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Weather variability presents an external impediment that increases the uncertainty in crop production potential specially for perennial crops under rain-fed cultivation. In particular, increasing rainfall variability that has accompany climate change in the tropics is increasing production uncertainty exposing farmers to a range of risks. Producer behavior under uncertainty is theoretically advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000) with the development of the state-contingent approach. This theory advocates farmers manage uncertainty by allocating inputs into different states of nature. This will enhance farmers' capacity to choose variable production technologies to manage uncertainty associated with unexpected events as state-contingent production technologies are naturally more flexible. This thesis examines the application of a state-contingent model for coconut production to assess the impact of a changing climate on coconut production with a view to assess adaptation options for a production system involving long-lived crops. The analysis of production of perennial crops encounters the treatment of long gestation periods, gradual increase in yield over an extended maturation period and yield stabilization following maturity. In considering optimal resource allocation from an agricultural production system perspective, a) the nature of resource constraints, b) the appropriateness of production technology and c) decision makers managerial behaviour needs to be considered together. The analysis in this thesis integrates these three aspects, with a special focus on managing uncertainty in coconut production in Sri Lanka. Climate is a primary determinant of crop choice and weather variability is the major factor influencing agricultural productivity and uncertainty in production outcomes. To examine the impact of changes in climatological variables, rainfall and temperature, on coconut production, a production time series over 1950-2014 was used to identify variations and trends over time and their statistical significance. The graphical and statistical analyses undertaken proved useful in gaining a more complete understanding of how the production environment is changing in the short run as well as over the long run. It offered a sound basis to further consider effective adaptation options in agricultural production, especially long-lived assets such as coconuts, in response to changing states of climate, representing the natural environment in which production takes place. It was revealed that while climate change impacts are observable over longer time horizons, understanding the nature of such changes may allow farmers to adapt to more observable variations in weather over narrow time periods.

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Century scale climate change in the central highlands of Sri Lanka

Cited by 14 publications

References 17 publications

Reconstruction of the Late Holocene climate and environmental history from North Bolgoda Lake, Sri Lanka, using lipid biomarkers and pollen records

Reconstruction of the Late Holocene climate and environmental history from North Bolgoda Lake, Sri Lanka, using lipid biomarkers and pollen records

The impact of climate change on labour demand in the plantation sector: the case of tea production in Sri Lanka

Weather variability and coconut production in Sri Lanka: state-contingent analysis

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