Cereal yield gaps across Europe

Schils, R.L.M.; Olesen, Jørgen E.; Kersebaum, Kurt Christian; Rijk, Bert; Oberforster, M.; Kalyada, V. V.; Khitrykau, Maksim; Gobin, Anne; Kirchev, H.; Manolova, V.; Manolov, I.; Trnka, Miroslav; Hlavinka, Petr; Palosuo, Taru; Peltonen‐Sainio, Pirjo; Jauhiainen, Lauri; Lorgeou, Josiane; Marrou, Hélène; Danalatos, N.G.; Archontoulis, Sotirios; Fodor, Nándor; Spink, John; Roggero, Pier Paolo; Bassu, Simona; Pulina, Antonio; Seehusen, Till; Uhlen, Anne Kjersti; Żyłowska, Katarzyna; Nieróbca, Anna; Kozyra, Jerzy; Silva, João Vasco; Maçãs, Benvindo; Coutinho, José Moacyr Vianna; Ion, V.; Takáč, Jozef; Mínguez, M. Inés; Eckersten, Henrik; Levy, Lilia; Herrera, Juan M.; Hiltbrunner, Jürg; Kryvobok, Оleksii; Kryvoshein, О. О.; Sylvester‐Bradley, R.; Kindred, D. R.; Topp, Cairistiona F. E.; Boogaard, H.L.; Groot, Hugo de; Lesschen, J.P.; Bussel, Lenny van; Wolf, J.; Zijlstra, Mink; Loon, Marloes P. van; Ittersum, M.K. van

doi:10.1016/j.eja.2018.09.003

Cited by 158 publications

(110 citation statements)

References 41 publications

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“…Also, the average yield gap (difference between actual gain and estimated potential gain) in Europe for cereal crops is about 42%, with a range between 10% and 70% depending on the region, making simulated yield improvements of up to 75% by the 2050s in the scenarios reported here questionable. There is, nevertheless, potential for large increases in crop yields in Eastern Europe including Romania, Ukraine and Poland [53]. This is in line with our result of a large-scale yield improvement occurred in Poland ( figure 3).…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

“…The impact of bioenergy production was additionally analysed in terms of directly-caused land use transitions. The maximum yield improvement level (=75%) was set to match the maximum possible yield gap in Europe [53] and to allow yield improvement across all crops due to crop breeding [49]. All of these values were designed to provide broad limits within which simulated change could occur, rather than predictive pathways, in order to assess the scale of change required for simultaneous achievement of food security and climate mitigation targets.…”

Section: Stylised Land-based Mitigation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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Land-based mitigation, particularly through afforestation, reforestation and avoided deforestation, is an important component of the Paris Agreement to limit average global temperature increases to between 1.5°C and 2°C. However, the specific actions that would ensure sufficient carbon sequestration in forests remain unclear, as do their trade-offs against other land-based objectives. We use a regional integrated assessment model to identify the conditions under which European forests reach the extent required by mitigation targets. We compare stylised scenarios of changes in meat demand, bioenergy crop production, irrigation efficiency, and crop yield improvement. Only 42 out of 972 model simulations achieved minimum levels of food provision and forest extent without the need to change dietary preferences, but relied on crop yield improvements within Europe of at least 30%. Maintaining food imports at today's levels to avoid the potential displacement of food production and deforestation required at least a 15% yield improvement, or a drastic reduction in meat consumption (avg. 57%). The results suggest that the large-scale afforestation/reforestation planned in European targets is virtually impossible to achieve without transformation of the food system, making it unlikely that Europe will play its required role in global efforts to limit climate change without utilising land beyond its borders.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 89%

Section: Stylised Land-based Mitigation Scenariosmentioning

confidence: 99%

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Lee

Brown

Seo

et al. 2019

Environ. Res. Lett.

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“…That might be explained by the growing world demand for cereals that forces an increase in their production. This requires the use of additional nitrogen or improvement in N uptake by plants [36,37]. Schils et al estimated that the national yield gaps range between 10% and 70%, with large gaps in eastern and south-western Europe especially in Ukraine, Romania and Poland.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Analysis of Sources and Trends in Agricultural GHG Emissions from Annex I Countries

Wójcik‐Gront

2020

Atmosphere

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The vast majority of the scientific community believe that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the predominant cause of climate change. One of the GHG emission sources is agriculture. Following the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines regarding GHG emission calculation, agriculture is responsible for around 10% of the overall global emissions. Agricultural GHG emissions consist of several emission source categories and several GHGs. In this article were described the results of multivariate statistical analyses performed on data gathered during the period 1990–2017 from the inventories of 43 Annex I countries (parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNFCCC, listed in Annex I of the Convention). Trends in the agricultural GHG emissions were analyzed. Generally, the global agricultural GHG emissions are increasing, while the emissions from Annex I countries are decreasing. Apart from the application of urea, emissions from all other sources, such as enteric fermentation, manure management, rice cultivation, agricultural soils, field burning of agricultural residues, and liming are decreasing. Based on multivariate analysis, the most different countries, in terms of GHG emission sources composition in agriculture and emission trends, are Australia, Japan, New Zealand and USA. The rest of the Annex I countries are mostly from Europe and their shares and trends are similar, with slight differences between countries depending, among others, on the date of joining the European Union.

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“…This is true even for crop plants like wheat and barley that have been bred for thousands of years to grow at high density and for high yields. Mathematical modelling of crop growth suggests that typical crop yields fall well short of the potential yields that should be possible with available resources (Schils et al 2018;Foulkes et al 2011). For instance, in the UK, average winter wheat yields are around 9 tonnes/hectare, compared to a theoretical potential of 22 tonnes/hectare (Sylvester-Bradley and Wiseman, 2004).…”

Section: Root Density Nutrient Use Efficiency and Yieldmentioning

confidence: 99%

Root density sensing allows pro-active modulation of shoot growth to avoid future resource limitation

Bennett

2019

Preprint

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Plants use environmental cues to determine their optimal root and shoot growth. It is well known to gardeners and horticulturists alike that soil volumemost commonly in the form of pot sizestrongly restricts plant growth, but the mechanisms by which this effect occurs remain unclear. Here, we show that shoot growth scales directly with soil volume, independently of the nutritional content of the soil, and that plants can become 'volume restricted' even in the presence of abundant resources. We show that plants can detect their soil volume as early as 3 weeks post germination, and that shoot growth restriction therefore constitutes a pro-active 'decision' by the plant to avoid resource limitation later in the life cycle. Shoot growth restriction is not directly linked to root growth restriction, and does not occur in response to the mechanical detection of the pot walls. Rather, we show that plants detect their soil volume by detecting the density of roots in the proximity of their root system. As such, volume restriction may be intimately connected with the mechanism by which plants sense and respond to the roots of other plants in the rhizosphere. Our work demonstrates the remarkable ability of plants to make pro-active decisions about their growth to ensure they can complete their cycle, and has important implications for agricultural practise regarding both nutrient use efficiency and yield.

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Cereal yield gaps across Europe

Cited by 158 publications

References 41 publications

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Implementing land-based mitigation to achieve the Paris Agreement in Europe requires food system transformation

Analysis of Sources and Trends in Agricultural GHG Emissions from Annex I Countries

Root density sensing allows pro-active modulation of shoot growth to avoid future resource limitation

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