Challenges for Ice Age Dynamics: A Dynamical Systems Perspective

Crucifix, Michel; Lenoir, Guillaume; Mitsui, T.

doi:10.1017/9781316339251.002

Cited by 3 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 161 publications

(208 reference statements)

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“…The theoretical model proposed here, and therefore the physical mechanisms involving rapid changes in the westerlies, in the direction of the subtropical gyre and in the air-sea thermal contrast superimposed to the long-term change, needs to be evaluated by model experiments. In particular, some authors (e.g., Crucifix et al, 2016 ) propose the integration of stochastic models in the Earth Model of Intermediate Complexity with the aim to analyze the effect of the rapid, millennial scale, variability on the long-term glacial-interglacial climate changes.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

et al. 2018

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Pollen from deep-sea sedimentary sequences provides an integrated regional reconstruction of vegetation and climate (temperature, precipitation, and seasonality) on the adjacent continent. More importantly, the direct correlation of pollen, marine and ice indicators allows comparison of the atmospheric climatic changes that have affected the continent with the response of the Earth's other reservoirs, i.e., the oceans and cryosphere, without any chronological uncertainty. The study of long continuous pollen records from the European margin has revealed a changing and complex interplay between European climate, North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), ice growth and decay, and high-and low-latitude forcing at orbital and millennial timescales. These records have shown that the amplitude of the last five terrestrial interglacials was similar above 40 • N, while below 40 • N their magnitude differed due to precessionmodulated changes in seasonality and, particularly, winter precipitation. These records also showed that vegetation response was in dynamic equilibrium with rapid climate changes such as the Dangaard-Oeschger (D-O) cycles and Heinrich events, similar in magnitude and velocity to the ongoing global warming. However, the magnitude of the millennial-scale warming events of the last glacial period was regionally-specific. Precession seems to have imprinted regions below 40 • N while obliquity, which controls average annual temperature, probably mediated the impact of D-O warming events above 40 • N. A decoupling between high-and low-latitude climate was also observed within last glacial warm (Greenland interstadials) and cold phases (Greenland stadials). The synchronous response of western European vegetation/climate and eastern North Atlantic SSTs to D-O cycles was not a pervasive feature throughout the Quaternary. During periods of ice growth such as MIS 5a/4, MIS 11c/b and MIS 19c/b, repeated millennial-scale cold-air/warm-sea decoupling events occurred on the European margin superimposed to a long-term air-sea decoupling trend. Strong air-sea thermal contrasts promoted the production of water vapor that was then transported northward by the Frontiers in Plant Science | www.frontiersin.org 1 January 2018 | Volume 9 | Article 38Sánchez Goñi et al.Pollen and Ice Ages westerlies and fed ice sheets. This interaction between long-term and shorter timescale climatic variability may have amplified insolation decreases and thus explain the Ice Ages. This hypothesis should be tested by the integration of stochastic processes in Earth models of intermediate complexity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

et al. 2018

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“…It is generally assumed that the different mechanisms are linked to each other (Crucifix et al 2017), and many of them are not mutually exclusive. Therefore, most modeling studies use a combination of proposed mechanisms (Brovkin et al 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A potential feedback loop underlying glacial-interglacial cycles

et al. 2021

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The sawtooth-patterned glacial-interglacial cycles in the Earth’s atmospheric temperature are a well-known, though poorly understood phenomenon. Pinpointing the relevant mechanisms behind these cycles will not only provide insights into past climate dynamics, but also help predict possible future responses of the Earth system to changing CO$$_2$$ 2 levels. Previous work on this phenomenon suggests that the most important underlying mechanisms are interactions between marine biological production, ocean circulation, temperature and dust. So far, interaction directions (i.e., what causes what) have remained elusive. In this paper, we apply Convergent Cross-Mapping (CCM) to analyze paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic records to elucidate which mechanisms proposed in the literature play an important role in glacial-interglacial cycles, and to test the directionality of interactions. We find causal links between ocean ventilation, biological productivity, benthic $$\delta ^{18}$$ δ 18 O and dust, consistent with some but not all of the mechanisms proposed in the literature. Most importantly, we find evidence for a potential feedback loop from ocean ventilation to biological productivity to climate back to ocean ventilation. Here, we propose the hypothesis that this feedback loop of connected mechanisms could be the main driver for the glacial-interglacial cycles.

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“…Statistical tests and good null-models can help to objectively identify patterns, but choosing the right null-model is not always a trivial task (Gotelli and Ulrich, 2012). Additionally, in systems where many possible relationships have been suggested to exist, such as the climate system (Daruka and Ditlevsen, 2016;Crucifix et al, 2017), any finding can be explained. Therefore, our intuition about a pattern and our ability to explain a pattern, are not always indicative of the truth.…”

Section: Explaining Non-existent Patternsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is generally assumed that the different mechanisms are linked to each other (Crucifix et al, 2017), and many of them are not mutually exclusive. Therefore, most modeling studies use a combination of proposed mechanisms (Brovkin et al, 2007).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Dynamics of complex systems inferred from multivariate time series

Weinans¹

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In the past decades, society and science have seen an increased popularity of big data, with unsurpassed volumes, resolutions and quality. Especially in medicine there is an increasing role for big data to infer a patients health, his/her functioning, and predicting the response to interventions. These data invite on the one hand for the development of new analysis tools such as machine learning and Artificial Intelligence, but on the other hand for re-investigation of analysis tools that previously were limited by data availability. In this study we investigate two of these formerly proposed analysis tools that have a basis in complex systems dynamics: Dynamical Indicators Of Resilience (DIORs) and complexity quantification tools. We explore their similarities and differences and demonstrate how they both have specific roles when studying the human as a complex dynamical system.

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Challenges for Ice Age Dynamics: A Dynamical Systems Perspective

Cited by 3 publications

References 161 publications

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

Pollen from the Deep-Sea: A Breakthrough in the Mystery of the Ice Ages

A potential feedback loop underlying glacial-interglacial cycles

Dynamics of complex systems inferred from multivariate time series

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