Challenges of Sea-Ice Prediction for Arctic Marine Policy and Planning

Stephenson, Scott R.; Pincus, R.

doi:10.1080/08865655.2017.1294494

Cited by 25 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 67 publications

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“…Additional sectors for which S2D forecasts are being assessed for decision-making include agriculture (Klemm and McPherson 2017), energy (demand and wind power generation, Clark et al 2017;Lledó et al 2019), tropical cyclone (Bergman et al 2019) and coastal flooding (Widlansky et al 2017) preparedness, Arctic marine transportation (Stephenson and Pincus 2018), wildfire risk (Turco et al 2019), and food security (Funk et al 2019).…”

Section: E887mentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

Merryfield

Baehr

Batté

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

173

113

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Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere–ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

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Section: E887mentioning

confidence: 99%

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

Merryfield

Baehr

Batté

et al. 2020

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

173

113

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…As such, there is a growing need for improved predictability of sea ice conditions. At the tactical level (e.g., to plan for resupply of ports and support other marine traffic), needs range from short‐term forecasts of regional ice conditions to predicting seasonal ice retreat dates and the open water period in key areas such as the Chukchi Sea, the Northwest Passage, and the Northern Sea Route . Strategic planning, such as planning for when the Northwest Passage will become reliably open in summer, requires predictability on decadal and longer time horizons.…”

Section: Predictabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

Serreze

Meier

2018

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

188

135

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As assessed over the period of satellite observations, October 1978 to present, there are downward linear trends in Arctic sea ice extent for all months, largest at the end of the melt season in September. The ice cover is also thinning. Downward trends in extent and thickness have been accompanied by pronounced interannual and multiyear variability, forced by both the atmosphere and ocean. As the ice thins, its response to atmospheric and oceanic forcing may be changing. In support of a busier Arctic, there is a growing need to predict ice conditions on a variety of time and space scales. A major challenge to providing seasonal scale predictions is the 7-10 days limit of numerical weather prediction. While a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean is likely well within this century, there is much uncertainty in the timing. This reflects differences in climate model structure, the unknown evolution of anthropogenic forcing, and natural climate variability. In sharp contrast to the Arctic, Antarctic sea ice extent, while highly variable, has increased slightly over the period of satellite observations. The reasons for this different behavior remain to be resolved, but responses to changing atmospheric circulation patterns appear to play a strong role.

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“…北的区域活动, 甚至无需航经几个关键海峡, 西北航道也已经有货轮和邮轮穿梭航行 [43] , 表明基于模式的研究结论可能存在整体相对保守的问题. 鉴于模式对北极海冰变化的预测整体相对保守的问题已被大量研究工作证实 [10,44~47] , Smith和Stephenson [17] [31,48] . 图片使用已取得John Wiley and Sons (2015)和Taylor & Francis(2017)授权 Figure 6 Areas of 90-d accessibility on average from 2020-2029 for PC3, PC6, and OW vessels, as projected by the CCSM4.0 (a) and ACCESS 1.0 (b), and time series of navigation season lengths for OW vessels from 2010 to 2060 projected by 10 models under a moderate climate forcing scenario (RCP 4.5) (c).…”

Section: 据显示 2010~2014年间普通商船已经在东北航道更靠mentioning

confidence: 99%

Review of navigability changes in trans-Arctic routes

Cao¹,

Meng²,

Hui³

et al. 2020

Chin. Sci. Bull.

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Assessments of the Arctic amplification and the changes in the Arctic sea surface Advances in Climate Change Research 10, 193 (2019); A critical review on various trophic transfer routes of microplastics in the context of the Indian coastal ecosystem Watershed Ecology and the Environment 2, 25 (2020); Products and production routes for the catalytic conversion of seed oil into fuel and chemicals: a comprehensive review

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Challenges of Sea-Ice Prediction for Arctic Marine Policy and Planning

Cited by 25 publications

References 67 publications

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction

The Arctic's sea ice cover: trends, variability, predictability, and comparisons to the Antarctic

Review of navigability changes in trans-Arctic routes

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