Chance played a role in determining whether Earth stayed habitable

Abstract

Earth’s climate has remained continuously habitable throughout 3 or 4 billion years. This presents a puzzle (the ‘habitability problem’) because loss of habitability appears to have been more likely. Solar luminosity has increased by 30% over this time, which would, if not counteracted, have caused sterility. Furthermore, Earth’s climate is precariously balanced, potentially able to deteriorate to deep-frozen conditions within as little as 1 million years. Here I present results from a novel simulation in which thousands of planets were assigned randomly generated climate feedbacks. Each planetary set-up was tested to see if it remained habitable over a period of 3 billion years. The conventional view attributes Earth’s extended habitability solely to stabilising mechanisms. The simulation results shown here reveal instead that chance also plays a role in habitability outcomes. Earth’s long-lasting habitability was therefore most likely a contingent rather than an inevitable outcome.

How Anthropocene Might Save the World: Metamorphosis

“…Timothy M. Lenton, (Lenton et al 2020) point out that "climatologists missed it because Life is hard to see in the Earth's energy balance" and the "scientists were repelled by teleological arguments". Toby Tyrrell, in spite of the discrepancies he expresses with the Gaia theory, accepts that it is a problem, and that this presents a puzzle (Tyrrell 2020). Science is not evolution, it is also evolution.…”

“…Toby Tyrrell (2020) criticizes the concept of "change" in the Gaia Hypothesis: "the Gaia hypothesis lacks a clear mechanistic basis", i.e., it happens sometimes by chance. The concept of the "cosmic miracle" is controversial for science.…”

The Balance of Nature: A Global Marine Perspective

“…In terms of the carbon cycle, a related insight is that input fluxes of CO2 into the ocean-atmosphere system on geologic timescales must have remained largely equal to the output fluxes (Berner & Caldeira 1997). Nevertheless, the idea that these observations necessarily imply a stabilizing feedback has been challenged (Tyrrell 2020).…”

Towards a Classification Scheme for the Rocky Planets based on Equilibrium Thermodynamic Considerations

“…The last set of parameters are intimately related with the issue of habitability and the long term conditions to support a stable climatic system. A recent simulation in which thousands of planets were assigned randomly generated climate feedbacks to verify whether habitable conditions remained over a period of 3 billion years showed that chance plays a role, meaning that Earth-like long lasting habitability is most likely a contingent rather than an inevitable outcome [28].…”