Change in Energy Structure and Energy Security under Climate Mitigation Scenarios

Matsumoto, Kousuke

doi:10.1007/978-1-4471-5286-6_4

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 24 publications

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“…This model is a multi-regional/multi-sectoral recursive dynamic CGE model on a global scale, with energy and environmental (GHG emissions) components. The model is based on works such as Masui et al ( 2011 ), Matsumoto ( 2013 ), Matsumoto and Masui ( 2009 , 2011 ), and Okagawa et al ( 2012 ). As full model details are described in our previous studies, such as those of Matsumoto and Andriosopoulos ( 2016 ) and Matsumoto et al ( 2016 ), only the major features of the model are provided here.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives

Matsumoto

Tachiiri

Kawamiya

2016

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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Recent climate modeling studies have concluded that cumulative carbon emissions determine temperature increase, regardless of emission pathways. Accordingly, the optimal emission pathway can be determined from a socioeconomic standpoint. To access the path dependence of socioeconomic impacts for cumulative carbon emissions, we used a computable general equilibrium model to analyze impacts on major socioeconomic indicators on a global scale for 30–50 pathways with different emission reduction starting years, different subsequent emission pathways, and three different cumulative 2100 emission scenarios (emissions that meet the 2 °C target, the 2 °C target emissions plus 10 %, and emissions producing radiative forcing of 4.5 W/m2). The results show that even with identical cumulative emission figures, the resulting socioeconomic impacts vary by the pathway realized. For the United Nations 2 °C target, for example, (a) the 95 % confidence interval of cumulative global gross domestic product (GDP) is 1355–1363 trillion US dollars (2010–2100, discount rate = 5 %), (b) the cumulative GDP of pathways with later emission reduction starting years grows weaker (5 % significance level), and (c) emissions in 2100 have a moderate negative correlation with cumulative GDP. These results suggest that GDP loss is minimized with pathways with earlier emission reduction followed by more moderate reduction rates to achieve lower emission levels. Consequently, we suggest an early emission peak to meet the stringent target. In our model setting, it is desirable for emissions to peak by 2020 to reduce mitigation cost and by 2030 at the latest to meet the 2 °C target.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Evaluating multiple emission pathways for fixed cumulative carbon dioxide emissions from global-scale socioeconomic perspectives

Matsumoto

Tachiiri

Kawamiya

2016

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…This model is based on Masui et al [38], Matsumoto [42], Matsumoto and Masui [43,44], and Okagawa et al [45]. A CGE model is a top-down model for analyzing the economic implications of energy and climate change issues and policy designs (e.g., Matsumoto and Masui [43,44]; Peace and Weyant [46]; Saveyn et al [47]; Shukla et al [48]).…”

Section: Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[38]; Riahi et al [39]; Thomason et al [40]; van Vuuren et al [41]). Analysis on energy security in the global scale has been done by Matsumoto [42].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%