Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Chakilu, Gashaw Gismu; Szegedi, S.; Túri, Zoltán

doi:10.3390/w12113046

Cited by 15 publications

(14 citation statements)

References 27 publications

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“…The result obtained under all the scenarios considered in this study have shown increasing trend. This result agrees with different studies made by other researchers in Ethiopian catchments (IPCC 2014, Asnake et al , 2020; Gashaw et al , 2020; Selam et al , 2020).…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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Purpose To assess the impacts of climate change on stream flow and evaluation of reservoir performances, reliability, resilience and vulnerability (RRV) indices are contemplated. Precipitation, temperature (Tmax, Tmin), relative humidity and solar radiation are the hydrological and meteorological data which have been used extensively. Climate data like RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were evaluated for the base period 1976–2005 and future climate scenario for 2021–2050 and 2051–2080 as per the convenience. Design/methodology/approach The hydrologic engineering center hydrologic modeling system (HEC-HMS) model was used to simulate the current and future inflow volume into the reservoir. The model performance resulted as 0.76 Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), 0.78 R2 and −3.17 D and during calibration the results obtained were 0.8 NSE, 0.82 R2 and 2.1 D. The projected climate scenario illustrates an increasing trend for both maximum and minimum temperature though a decreasing trend was documented for precipitation. The average time base reliability of the reservoirs was less than 50% without reservoir condition and greater than 50% for other conditions but volumetric reliability and resilience varies between 50% and 100% for all conditions. The vulnerability result of reservoirs may face shortage of flow ranging from 5.7% to 33.8%. Findings Evaluating reservoir simulation and hydropower generation for different climate scenarios by HEC-ResSim model, the energy generated for upper dam ranges from 349.4 MWhr to 331.2 MWhr and 4045.82 MWhr and 3946.74 MWhr for short and long-term future scenario, respectively. RCP for Tmax and Tmin goes on increasing whereas precipitation and inflow to reservoir decreases owing to increase in evapotranspiration. Under diverse climatic conditions power production goes on varying simultaneously. Originality/value This paper is original and all the references are properly cited.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 93%

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Bekele¹,

Ayana

Mohammed

et al. 2021

WJE

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“…The SWAT model is a continuous, semi-distributed, and process-based model that is operated on a daily basis at the basin scale [33,34]. It is widely used to simulate hydrological processes on various scales, including small catchments and large catchments, under different climate scenarios over a long period of time and is especially suitable for African river basins [35,36].…”

Section: Swat Hydrological Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

Kim

Habimana²,

Kim

et al. 2021

Sustainability

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Burundi is susceptible to future water-related disasters, but examining the influence of climate change on regional hydroclimatic features is challenging due to a lack of local data and adaptation planning. This study investigated the influence of climate change on hydroclimate-focused changes in the climatology of heavy precipitation (and streamflow) means and extremes based on the multi-model ensemble mean of earth system models in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). For runoff analysis, hydrologic responses to future climate conditions were simulated using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model over the Ruvubu River basin, Burundi. Temperature increases by 5.6 °C, with strong robustness, under future climate conditions. The mean annual precipitation (and runoff) undergoes large seasonal variations, with weak robustness. Precipitation (and streamflow) changes between the wet and dry seasons differ in signal and magnitude. However, alterations in both the amount and frequency of precipitation reveal the intensification of the water cycle due to anthropogenic climate change. Thus, the highest variability in the maximum daily streamflow is shown in months of long wet seasons, especially in the far future (2085). Without considering the regional climate characteristics and shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, this behavior is expected to be enhanced in 2085 (compared with 2045) and increase the severity of extreme precipitation and flood risk. Climate change will cause alterations in the magnitude and seasonal distributions of extreme precipitation (and streamflow). These findings could be important for flood planning and mitigation measures to cope with climate change in Burundi.

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“…Therefore, the inhabitants of the Gumera watershed should use irrigation and they must manage their water resources carefully during the periods from 2011-2040 and 2041-2070. Another study revealed that, due to climate change, the streamflow of the watershed was found to increase by 4.06%, 3.26%, and 3.67% under RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, respectively [1]. The temperature and sediment load are shown to increase in the future while the rainfall and streamflow decrease [2].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Climate change is the greatest threat to agriculture and food security in the 21 st century, particularly in many of the poor, agriculture-based countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) with their low capacity to effectively cope [1]. Slight rises in temperatures will lead to greater loss of moisture, exacerbating drought, and desertification [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Response of Streamflow to Climate Change in Gumera Watershed, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

Bushira

Deressa

Guta

2021

Curr. Appl. Sci. Technol.

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Change in water hydrology is caused by climate change. This study evaluates the response of stream flow to climate change. A study of the impact of climate change on streamflow and direct runoff in the Gumera watershed was carried out using the hydrologic model HEC-HMS. Climate change impact analysis was performed using a down scaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) called the Hadley Center Earth System Model (Had GEM-ES). In this model, bias correction was done for 365 days using power transformation for rainfall correction. The study showed that for the RCP2.6 scenario, streamflow decreases annually by 0.001% in the 2050’s. It decreases annually with change of 0.01% for RCP4.5. The RCP8.5 scenario reveals an annual decrease in streamflow of 0.002%. The study provides a broad perspective on probable hydrologic alterations in the region, and the results provide useful input for sustainable water resource development.

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Change in Stream Flow of Gumara Watershed, upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia under Representative Concentration Pathway Climate Change Scenarios

Cited by 15 publications

References 27 publications

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Prophesying the stream flow and perpetrating the performance of Halele-Werabessa reservoirs of Ethiopia using HEC-HMS and HEC-ResSim

Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydroclimatic Response in Burundi Based on CMIP6 ESMs

The Response of Streamflow to Climate Change in Gumera Watershed, Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

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